Lessons from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)
Or, cognitive dissonance in the conservative world
Will U.S. oil consumption continue to decline?
A lot of attention has been given to the optimistic assessments of future U.S. and Iraqi oil production in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2012. However, perhaps even more dramatic is the report’s prediction of a significant long-term decline in petroleum consumption from the OECD countries. For example, the report predicts about a 1 mb/d drop in U.S. oil consumption by 2020 and a 5 mb/d drop by 2035 relative to current levels. I was curious to examine some of the fundamentals behind petroleum consumption to assess the plausibility of the IEA projections.
Fiscal Slope Negotiations in the Context of Current Expenditures and Current Receipts
The latter is stabilizing at extremely low levels.
Data revisions mean more of the same
Revisions to some of the key indicators bring us back to the same old story– the U.S. economy continues to grow, but at a slower rate than any of us would like.
What Would Happen
If the Bush tax cuts all lapsed?
Some Speculation Regarding Asian-American Voting Patterns in 2012
Noahpinion asks: “[W]hy did Asian-Americans break so strongly for Obama? I provide my (slightly different) answer.
Peak oil
I offer some observations on exhaustible resources and economic growth in the latest issue of the UCSD Economics Newsletter.
What’s Up with Wisconsin Employment?
Civilian employment in Wisconsin is less than it was when Governor Walker took office in January 2011. In contrast, US employment is almost 3% higher.
Calculated Risk
Business Insider has a very nice interview with Bill McBride, in which Bill explains why he is more optimistic about the economy than many others. And yes, the praise of Bill is all well deserved.
Guest Contribution: “China’s Transition: Three Scenarios”
Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Phillip Swagel, Professor in International Economic Policy at University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, and formerly Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury Department (December 2006 to January 2009).