Or, where have you gone, Todd Henderson?
Shale oil and tight oil
Since 2005, the “total oil supply” for the United States as reported by the Energy Information Administration increased by 2.2 million barrels per day. Of this, 1.3 mb/d, or 60%, has come from natural gas liquids and biofuels, which really shouldn’t be added to conventional crude production for purposes of calculating the available supply. Of the 800,000 b/d increase in actual field production of crude oil, almost all of the gain has come from shale and other tight formations that horizontal fracturing methods have only recently opened up. Here I offer some thoughts on how these new production methods change the overall outlook for U.S. oil production.
The Fiscal Cliff, and the Enduring Legacy of EGTRRA/JGTRRA and a Certain Discretionary Spending Measure Starting in 2003
The CBO recently released a document that places our current policy dilemma in context (Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections Since January 2001, June 7, 2012).
Current economic conditions
I see both dark clouds and rays of hope.
Update on U.S. gasoline prices
Two weeks ago, I commented on the tendency of U.S. retail gasoline prices to follow the price of Brent crude oil, anticipating on the basis of the price of Brent, then at $91.50, that we might expect to see average U.S. retail gasoline prices, then at $3.47, to fall an additional 35 cents/gallon. The gasoline price has since come down about 11 cents. But with Brent now surging back up near $100, this is about all we can expect.
Emerging Reserve Currencies?
From the abstract to “A Note on Reserve Currencies
with Special Reference to the G-20 Countries”
It is most likely that the current reserve currencies will retain their status in the near future, given the persistence in the composition of reserve holdings.
Natural gas liquids
According to the Energy Information Administration, in March the United States produced a “total oil supply” of 10.8 million barrels per day, which was 2.1 mb/d more than in January 2005. But if you just rely on those aggregate numbers, you’ll miss some very important trends.
Guest Contribution: The Fed Shirks Its Duties
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Joseph E. Gagnon of the Peterson Institute of International Economics.
Links for 2012-06-27
Quick links to another proposal for Europe, and estimates of U.S. consumer benefits from lower natural gas and gasoline prices.
Guest Contribution: “Labor Shares and Corporate Savings”
In a Guest Contribution today, Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman (University of Chicago) discuss their recent research on “Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Savings.”