Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Phillip Swagel, Professor in International Economic Policy at University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, and formerly Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury Department (December 2006 to January 2009).
Europe in recession
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (the European counterpart of the U.S. NBER) last week
issued a declaration that Europe entered a new recession a year ago, dating the business cycle peak at 2011:Q3.
CBO: “What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Recession?”
“CBO estimates that about two-thirds of the difference between the growth in real GDP in the current recovery and the average for other recoveries can be attributed to sluggish growth in potential GDP.”
Guest Contribution: Gridlock in Europe
The Rise and Fall of the IMF’s Reputation
Today we are fortunate to have as a guest contributor Joseph Joyce, Professor of Economics at Wellesley College, and author of the new book, The IMF and Global Financial Crises: Phoenix Rising? (Cambridge University Press).
The Republican Joint Economic Committee Does Public Finance
Or, “Just because you can’t prove that the top marginal tax rate has a large impact on economic growth doesn’t mean that it doesn’t: just have faith!”
2012 World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency
On Monday the IEA released its World Energy Outlook 2012. This includes an optimistic assessment of the situation in the United States:
The United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer before 2020,
exceeding Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s. At the same time, new fuel-efficiency measures in
transport begin to curb US oil demand. The result is a continued fall in US oil imports, to the
extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030.
Maximizing GDP Growth with Minimal Budgetary Cost in the Face of the Fiscal Slope/Cliff
We can maintain momentum, while moving toward budget sustainability, by allowing the Bush tax rate cuts for incomes above $250,000 to expire
National Research Council: “Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis”
”There is compelling reason to presume that specific failures of adaptation [to climate change] will occur with consequences more severe than any yet experienced, severe enough to compel more extensive international engagement than has yet been anticipated or organized.”
Links for 2012-11-10
A few links to some items I found of interest.
The Fiscal Cliff: International Implications
Most of the discussion has focused on the domestic repercussions of going off the fiscal cliff (or as my former colleague Chad Stone calls it, the “fiscal slope”). I think it important to remember that, as the single largest economy, policy in the US has profound implications for economic developments overseas. This is particularly true with the eurozone still in a fragile state, and China growing (relatively) slowly.