I keep on seeing references to “massive stimulus”, so much I have this feeling of innumeracy everwhere. Here’s one example, provided by a commenter on Free Exchange the day before yesterday, responding to the linked article of Brad Delong:
Oil prices and the U.S. economy
Here’s why I believe that the current high price of oil is not enough to derail the U.S. economic recovery.
The power of habit
Charles Duhigg has a very interesting new book called The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business.
Global Land Sea Anomaly, Global Climate Change, etc.
Since my last post on government spending increase (it’s actually decreasing) was hijacked by those focused on denying the impact of human activity on global climate, I thought it useful to recap the global land sea anomaly [0]. It’s also useful to recall that on one side is Texas Governor Perry [1], and the other side the National Academy of Sciences [2]. I think that dichotomy speaks volumes.
The “Ever Expanding” Government Illustrated, Part III
Following up on these two previous posts [1] [2], I decided to confront some views commonly held in certain circles with some actual data. To summarize:
- Real government nondefense spending on goods and services is declining, and is declining relative to real GDP.
- The ratio of government outlays to nominal potential GDP is declining.
- Total civilian government employment is declining, and is declining as a share of total nonfarm employment.
Keystone moving forward
In a development that should not have come as a surprise to Econbrowser readers, TransCanada announced on Monday that it would proceed with the portion of the controversial Keystone pipeline expansion that would connect Cushing, Oklahoma to the Gulf of Mexico. Because this part of the project does not cross the U.S.-Canadian border, it does not require approval from the U.S. State Department.
More on Potential GDP and the Output Gap
In the wake of St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s statement on the output gap [0] (which I frankly did not understand), there was renewed debate over output gap measurement [Duy] [Thoma] [Krugman]. I thought this was a good time to recap and update some of the material I’d written on this subject of output gaps.
Factors in the recent oil price increases
Crude oil prices surged last spring following disruptions in oil production from Libya, and had been drifting down during the summer and fall. But since the beginning of October, the price of West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil have both risen by over 30%, putting them back up near where they had been last spring. What’s changed in the world since the beginning of October?
Famous Conditional Forecasts from the Real Business Cycle Side
Or, who else misunderstood the nature of the financial crisis and recession
As I was reviewing material to use in teaching how new classical models relate to the popular aggregate demand/aggregate supply models [0] used in policy analysis, I ran into this forecast in the real business cycle vein from October 26, 2008.
Barring a nuclear war or other violent national disaster, employment will not drop below 134,000,000 and real GDP will not drop below $11 trillion.
Crude oil and gasoline prices
Crude oil prices this week reached their highest level since last April. What will that mean for U.S. consumers at the gas pump?