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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Doug Irwin on CNN: McKinley and Tariffs

On CNN yesterday, “Why Trump’s trade hero turned away from tariffs”:

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This entry was posted on September 15, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

FT-Booth September Survey of Macroeconomists: Growth or Recession?

For GDP, no recession on the short horizon:

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This entry was posted on September 14, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

August 2024 Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast

Released yesterday:

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This entry was posted on September 14, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

End-of-Week Nowcasts

St. Louis and NY Feds have new nowcasts.

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This entry was posted on September 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Up, Inflation Expectations Down

 

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This entry was posted on September 13, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Average Wages

On the rise:

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Scary Movie: Pseudo-Economics Edition

EJ Antoni/Heritage presents this picture which should scare the beejeebus out of us.

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Nationwide Grocery Prices at 2024M01 Levels

From the CPI release:

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous Core Inflation, with PPI and Nowcasted PCE Deflator

With the PPI release, and Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast as of today:

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This entry was posted on September 12, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Mackintosh/WSJ: “A Recession Signal Is Flashing Red. Or Is It?”

Article today on whether it matters if dis-inversion occurs because short rates fall, or long rates rise.

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This entry was posted on September 11, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
  • Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down
  • Central Bank Gold Holdings
  • Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate
  • Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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