I spent the better part of last Friday at an Institute for Research on Poverty conference, entitled “Employment Prospects for Lower Wage Workers: Easing the Implications of a Slow Recovery Conference”. It was a tremendous learning experience for me (since I’m not a labor economist), and a chance to be reminded of the full enormity of the challenges facing policymakers, as the economy limps in a fitful recovery, with little succor from further aggregate demand stimulus measures, and threatened by supply shocks as well as incoherence in fiscal policymaking. I mentioned the conference in a post last week, but the presentations and papers are now online.
More on Japan
I wanted to add a few quick additional comments to Ilan Noy’s reflections on the possible economic implications of the tragedy in Japan.
Guest Contribution: The Macroeconomic Aftermath of the Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan
By Ilan Noy
Today, we’re fortunate to have Ilan Noy, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Hawai’i, as a Guest Contributor.
In the last 14 months, we have seen a spate of very large earthquakes which began with the unprecedented devastation caused by the earthquake in Haiti (1/10/10) — the most destructive natural disaster in modern history (relative to national population), continued with the unusually strong earthquake in Chile (2/27/10), to the most recent events generated by the earthquake in Sendai, Japan.
2011 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge
If you’re not too busy forecasting oil prices and the stock market, try your hand at the 2011 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge. All you have to do is go to the Econbrowser group at ESPN, do some minor registering to create a free ESPN account if you haven’t used that site before, and make your picks for the winners of each game. Just make sure you complete your entry before Thursday, because the Econbrowser group only allows predictions before the tournament begins.
Consumers see bad news
The Reuters-Michigan survey of consumer sentiment registered a decline from 77.5 in February to a preliminary reading of 68.2 in March. That’s the biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis in October 2008, and wipes out the nice gains of the last four months to put us back where we were in October 2010.
AP: GOP budget targets agency that warned of tsunami
From AP:
WASHINGTON (AP) — A spending plan being pushed by Republicans would slash funding for the agency that warned Hawaii and the West Coast about the devastating tsunami in Japan.
Dispatches (IX): 49,000-85,000 100,000 Rally In Madison
From USA Today:
By 3 p.m., tens of thousands of people crowded the Capitol Square. There is a big discrepancy in the crowd estimates compiled by Capitol Police and the Madison Police Department. Capitol Police estimated about 49,500 at 2 p.m. while Madison police said the crowd was about 85,000.
Latest Reuters estimate at up to 100,000.
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations
From the abstract to a new OECD Development Center working paper, by Marcus Kappler, Helmut Reisen, Moritz Schularick and Edouard Turkisch, the results of a large, cross-country study based upon a narrative approach to identifying appreciation episodes:
The study shows that currency appreciations can help to a certain extent in reducing global imbalances, and that it can go along with a shift from a mainly export-based model of growth towards a model with internal sources of growth. The cost in terms of growth would be very limited in the case of developed countries, but somewhat larger for developing countries.
What will Saudi Arabia do?
One key question in determining the impact of instability in Libya and elsewhere on world oil markets is how much other countries can and will increase production to offset the shortfall. Here I review the critical role of Saudi Arabia in past disruptions and discuss the current situation.
Dispatches (VIII): A Dog’s Life in Wisconsin
Or, don’t lose your dog in Wisconsin.
Just one of the odd bits of legislation winding through Madison, WI. From AB40:
SECTION 2704. 174.13 (2) of the statutes is amended to read:
174.13 (2) Any officer or pound which has custody of an unclaimed dog may
release the dog to the University of Wisconsin System, the University of
Wisconsin–Madison, the Medical College of Wisconsin, Inc., or to any other
educational institution of higher learning chartered under the laws of the state and
accredited to the University of Wisconsin System or University of
Wisconsin–Madison, upon requisition by the institution.