I keep trying to warn my friends in the Federal Reserve about the tsunami that’s coming their way.
The commercialization of space
Google seems to be thinking big.
Saving Glut Redux
Bernanke recaps his interpretation of the explanation for global imbalances. Is it any more convincing than the first time?
Perspective on the Surge and US Losses
I thought it would behoove us to actually inspect the data and look at the trends (as opposed to listening to Administration officials) associated with operations in the Iraqi theater.
OPEC production quotas
How should we interpret yesterday’s announcement from OPEC?
The Decoupling Scenario: Pre-Assessment
The U.S. economy appears to be slowing. Predictions of continued growth probably rely on assumptions the rest of the world continues to grow. How reasonable is this view?
By how much will the Fed cut rates?
Once again we’re seeing a big divergence between what the markets expect the Fed to do and what the Fed expects the Fed to do.
Just how bad is the labor market?
Nonfarm payroll employment growth is 1.3% (12 month log difference). Civilian employment — adjusted to conform to the establishment payroll series — is 1.0%. These are the numbers for August 2007? Almost. Payroll employment growth was actually 1.2%. Those figures are for February 2001, the month immediately preceding the last NBER-defined recession.
Jobs numbers disappoint
Was that the other shoe we just heard drop?
Dueling Recession Probability Estimates
Macroeconomic Advisers says the probability of recession is less than 50%.