Another interesting paper presented at the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium that I attended last week was by
Anton Nakov of the Bank of Spain and Andrea Pescatori of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland on the role that changes in energy markets may have played in the reduction in GDP and inflation volatility observed since 1984.
Distressing Table of the Day
Here’s the basis for the $945 billion estimate of losses to the financial sector. From the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report:
Downshifting and Reversion in Forecasts: Global Version
The decoupling thesis seems to be ever more out of fashion. From the FT today:
Quite the finish
Amazing championship game for the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment: The Movie
By Menzie Chinn
As informative as the nonfarm payroll employment numbers were, of even more interest to me are the revisions. Figure 1 depicts payroll employment estimates from the January (blue), February (red) and March (green) releases.
Regional propagation of business cycles
This is the second of two posts (first can be found here) based on the Craig Hiemstra Memorial Lecture that I’ll be giving in San Francisco on Friday. There I’ll be discussing some ongoing research I’ve been doing with Mike Owyang of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on regional propagation of business cycles.
IMF World Economic Outlook Analytic Chapters Released
Several chapters of the IMF’s semi-annual research document are now available online, in advance of the IMF-Bank meetings.
The Yuan on the Move: An Update
And a bit on the IMF’s revised forecast for the US.
From Reuters, “U.S.’s Paulson praises China on currency progress”:
Downturn in auto sales continues
Automobile sales do not bode well for first-quarter GDP.
Maybe not so nonsensical after all
How far will house prices fall? Implications from the latest WSJ survey.