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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Recession probability index rises to 26.2%

Definitely some things to be encouraged about by the latest GDP report, but the overall impression of economic weakness remains.

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This entry was posted on July 27, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

Ouch

No, this was not a good housing report.

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This entry was posted on July 26, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

Will Dollar Depreciation Prevent A Recession?

As worries from ever expanding — but always containable — housing and mortgage market collapse mount (see this Reuters article), some analysts believe that the external accounts will save the day. From Bloomberg (July 23):

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This entry was posted on July 26, 2007 by Menzie Chinn.

San Diego index of leading indicators

Professor Alan Gin’s index may be of interest to those of us wondering where California’s economy is headed and to anyone who might want to construct a similar index for their own local economy.

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This entry was posted on July 25, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

What is Chinese GDP really doing?

Amidst all the discussion about rampant Chinese GDP growth, the appropriate conduct of macro policy in restraining that growth, and the implications for the components of aggregate demand, a simple question leads to complicated answers.

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This entry was posted on July 23, 2007 by Menzie Chinn.

Ethanol and food price volatility

If this is what we get in a good year, what will happen when we have a bad crop?

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This entry was posted on July 22, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

“We have always thought that America got away with something.”

Well, maybe not anymore. And perhaps not even before.

The quote is from an article on how the weak dollar is raising the costs of traveling to Europe, as the USD/EUR rate flirts with 1.40. The longer quote, from yesterday’s NYT article entitled “As Dollar Crumples, Tourists Overseas Reel”
, is:

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2007 by Menzie Chinn.

Bernanke on the economic outlook

In testimony before the U.S. Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke continued his policy of greater openness and transparency for Federal Reserve policy, trying to lay out clearly what the Fed is most worried about.

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This entry was posted on July 19, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

Iraq update

Expenditures continue to rise. More appropriations will likely be needed at this pace.

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This entry was posted on July 18, 2007 by Menzie Chinn.

Is OPEC relevant?

Are OPEC’s recent decisions responsible for the current price of oil? I’m not persuaded that they are, and here’s why.

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This entry was posted on July 17, 2007 by James_Hamilton.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.7 (describes  2025:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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