Usually an economic downturn is associated in a big increase in the spread between corporate and Treasury yields. This spiked pretty dramatically last week, but still has a long way to go.
Europe Slows
Part of the optimism regarding the economic outlook is based upon the robust growth — to date — in the rest of the world (see this post on the subject). The Euro zone looks like it’s in for some slower growth, though.
Myths about, and Empirics on, Chinese Trade and FDI
There is a lot of hyperbole surrounding China’s entry into the world trading system. There is fear in countries that compete with China, there is fear that China is somehow orchestrating the transfer of technological prowess from foreign to domestic firms, and a host of other anxieties.
China, Reserve Accumulation, and (Further) Threats to Financial Stability
Another roller coaster week
Glad I wasn’t trying to provide a play-by-play explanation of fed funds futures last week. But whatever was going on, we seemed to end up with the same conclusion with which the week began.
What is a liquidity event?
It was an exciting week in financial markets, including some dramatic central bank interventions in short-term money markets.
The Administration Reassures the Markets
In light of the events of today, it makes sense for the President and his Administration to appeal for calm.
Variation in Global Economic Growth
In discussing the U.S. economy, I keep on seeing this refrain from Treasury Secretary Paulson (this one happens to be from the NYT)
Almost Everything You Wanted to Know about G-7 Current Account Imbalances
A new book is out examining whether — and if so how — ongoing current account imbalances will be unwound.
Interpreting fed funds futures
Despite what you may have read elsewhere, the probability of a fed funds rate cut has increased significantly over the last few weeks.