No, I don’t like the latest employment numbers.
Auto sales down in April
The number of new cars and light trucks sold in America was down nearly 8% in April relative to the previous year. That’s a significant deterioration of the recent downward trend, but not yet a catastrophic plunge.
Is the “Investment Disconnect” So Surprising? Could It Be Even More Extreme Than We Think?
There’s been a flurry of discussion about nonresidential investment in the wake of Paul Krugman’s column (purchase required) on the subject. See commentary at Economists View and Brad Delong.
Idle hands are the devil’s workshop
Professor Gordon Dahl (my colleague here at UCSD) and Berkeley Professor Stefano DellaVigna have an interesting new research paper titled Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?
Four Years after “Mission Accomplished”
I thought that it was proper and fitting to evaluate the state of affairs in Iraq four years after President Bush declared the end of major military combat operations in Iraq.
Consumption smoothing and economic slowdowns
How alarming is it that 200% of 2007:Q1 GDP growth came from consumption spending?
Recession probability index rises to 16.9
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, moving our recession probability index up to 16.9%. This post provides some background on how that index is constructed and what the latest move up might signify.
The Economic Integration of Greater China
An assessment of real and financial integration, co-authored by Yin-Wong Cheung (University of California at Santa Cruz Economics), Menzie D. Chinn (University of Wisconsin at Madison La Follette School and Economics) and Eiji Fujii (Tsukuba University, Graduate School).
Further implications of the productivity slowdown for the dollar
In a previous post, I noted that the slowdown in economic growth in the US relative to rest-of-OECD would have a number implications for the dollar’s value in nominal and real terms.
Current economic conditions improve
Let’s admit it– the other shoe is not yet dropping.