The many interesting and thoughtful responses to my invitation for more open communication
between economists and others about peak oil has led me to a clearer understanding of exactly
what it is we’re seeing differently. Here I attempt to state a little more narrowly and
precisely what I see as the key substantive issue that I believe may most merit further
consideration from both sides.
The puzzle of long-term yields
Sherlock Holmes solved one of his cases by noticing a dog that didn’t bark. Well, here are a
few canines that don’t seem to be yipping around the decline in long-term bond yields.
How to talk to an economist about peak oil
I for one would like to see better communication between economists, geologists, and petroleum engineers about the timing and consequences of the eventual decline in global annual production rates of crude petroleum. In part the failure to communicate better with each other stems from differences in the language, assumptions, and paradigms with which those of us from different specialties approach this issue. As one small step toward bridging that gap, I’d like to lay out for noneconomists a few of the key aspects of how economists might think about peak oil.
Here and there around the web
Catching my eye here and there around the web: Supreme Court speculation, a natural
experiment in market microstructure, a troubling Kansas court decision, pirates, and an
expression of support for those in London.
Are the new employment figures really that bad?
The unemployment rate has reached its lowest level of the last four years, and yet some
economists still wring their hands in despair over the anemic job situation. I’m having some
trouble following their reasoning on this one.
How high will the Fed push interest rates?
Here’s one way you can figure out if you’ve pulled the car far enough into your garage– if
you run into the wall, you went too far. Hopefully the Fed has another plan for how to decide
when to stop raising the fed funds rate.
$100 a barrel– what are the odds?
Talk about where oil prices are headed is cheap, so at least we have plenty of that. But how
seriously does the market take the various possibilities that are being bandied about by the
pundits?
Where did that huge trade deficit come from?
Some have blamed the rest of the world for the rapidly growing U.S. current account deficit.
But I believe that the true explanation is to be found here at home.
Some like it hot
California may again offer the nation a useful illustration this summer of how not to deal
with an energy crisis.
Romney’s new health care proposal
The governor of Massachusetts has some new ideas for health care that, if nothing else, may help stimulate public discussion of the problem and our options for dealing with it.