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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

No sign yet of recession

The probability that the U.S. economy is experiencing a new economic recession remains below 5%, according to the latest value of the quarterly real-time GDP-based recession probability index.

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This entry was posted on June 3, 2005 by econbrowser.

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James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.7 (describes  2025:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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