Wide Dispersion in Nowcasts and Tracking
GDPNow for Q4 at 5.1% is considerably higher than Goldman Sachs at 3.1%, and St. Louis Fed at essentially zero.
We Are Well and Truly F****ed: Fed Edition
From Bloomberg:
Six Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment: All Below Peak
From CES, CPS, QCEW, Philly Fed, and from ADP:
Change in Federal Debt Held by the Public, Trump 1.0, 2.0, and Biden
The graph says it all.
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment and Goods Exports under Trump 2.0
Real exports, Manufacturing employment both down relative to 2024M12.
Accelerating Deterioration in Manufacturing Employment, Post-“Liberation Day”
ADP and BLS CES and QCEW data confirm:
The Average Effective Tariff Rate thru October
The actual — as opposed to announced — rate has only recently exceeded 12% (source: Paweł Skrzypczyński). Expect plenty of cost increases in 2026:
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Growth Slows
With the December release, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Private NFP Change below Consensus, Previous Revisions Change Trajectory
Change in private NFP +37K < +64K Bloomberg consensus, previous months revised down 121K.