Just published, Chinn-Ito index, available here. Normalized to [0,1], with 1 being most open, here’s the world.
Planet Money: “How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming”
NPR’s show today has a long segment on recession detection and prediction.
Destroying Dollar Safe Haven Status at Breakneck Speed
Consider the ten year Treasury yield and the dollar index (DXY) over the past six months:
Sentiment, Confidence, News
Note slight recovery in news sentiment (thru 5/18). Probably reflects some relief at the pause in higher US tariffs on Chinese goods.
Guest Contribution: “Policy Rule Evaluation for the Fed’s Strategy Review”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, Sebin Nidhiri and Swati Singh, Ph.D. students at the University of Houston.
NABE 2025 Growth Outlook Downgraded from 1.9% (April) to 1.3% (May)
From NABE today:
EJ Antoni Redefines Recession as What the American People Feel
See 0:35 in this FoxBusiness snippet in which he admits that by the 2-quarter rule-of-thumb we might end up being in a recession, but opines that what Americans “feel” is a better definition.
Downgrades and CDS
Bessent says Moody’s downgrade is a lagging indicator…
Thoughts on Soft vs. Hard Data
Reader Bruce Hall decries focus on “soft data” (read: it’s all the media’s fault!)
Republicans’ Economic Outlook Darken
Preliminary results indicate that this development precedes “Liberation Day”: