As of close today:
Negative GDP Growth in Q1?
GDPNow as of today:
Forward Looking Implications of Consumption Behavior in the Trump 2.0 Era
Aggregate consumption drops as income ex-current transfers rises. The pattern of disaggregated consumption pattern suggests tariff-induced front-loading drove some of the support for consumption in December.
James Hamilton: “Are consumer sentiment studies a good measure of the economy?”
Jim Hamilton (with others) answers the question in the San Diego Union-Tribune:
Bordo-Siklos Central Bank Credibility, using Michigan Expectations
Using final March numbers:
Term Spreads, Yield Curves, 28 March 2025
Why 2025 is not 2022 (Short-Horizon Recession Forecasting-Wise)
Reader Bruce Hall comments on this post showing the implications of a short horizon probit model of recession likelihood.
Trump: “I couldn’t care less if [foreign automakers] raise prices because people are going to start buying American cars.”
Near Horizon Recession Probability
I run a probit regression of a NBER peak-to-trough recession dummy on contemporaneous Michigan sentiment (FRED variable UMCSENT, and final reading for March) and the 1yr-Fed funds spread (the last is per Miller (2019) who shows this spread has he highest AUROC of spreads at one month horizon).
Business Cycle Indicators for February: What Does It Mean When Consumption Falls while Income Rises?
Personal income growth at +0.8% m/m vs +0.4% Bloomberg consensus, while consumption growth is +0.4% m/m vs 0.5% consensus. GDPNow adjusted for gold imports now at -0.5% q/q annualized. Michigan final expectations for March down 52.6 vs 54.2 consensus.