Read on, only if you believe in considering data.
2015 is on track to be the hottest on record.
Figure 1: Global land and sea temperature anomaly year-to-October. Source: NOAA.
For those wondering about statistical significance (e.g., Rick Stryker, who also believes that 500,000 jobs per month is a standard job creation rate during a recovery (LOL!!!)), from NOAA:
The average global sea surface temperature of +0.71°C (+1.28°F) was the highest for January–October in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record of 2014 by 0.08°C (0.14°F). This margin is larger than the uncertainty associated with the dataset. The average land surface temperature departure from average of +1.28°C (+2.30°F) was also the highest on record for October, surpassing the previous record of 2007 by 0.17°C (0.31°F).
For an additional assessment of trends (and absence of a “hiatus”) based on a different dataset, see Nature.
The Wildfire Season
As previously noted, this has been a devastating year for wildfires in the US. Here are the latest statistics on acres burned, both annual and year-to-date (20 November). The current 9.8 million exceeds the previous record in 2006, of 9.5 million (3.2% higher). It’s a record!
Figure 2: Acres burned (blue, left scale) and acres burned year-to-date 20 November (red, right scale). Log linear trend (gray), estimated by running a regression of log acres burned on time trend. Source: NIFC1, NFIC2, and author’s calculations.
The coefficient on the time trend is statistically significantly different from zero, if you were wondering. (An ADF test rejects the unit root null and a KPSS test fails to reject a trend stationary null.)
Using a regression of log acres burned on log acres burned year-to-date, one can obtain an estimate for acres burned in 2015. Based on this estimate, and a regression of fire suppression costs on acres burned and a time trend (Adj.-R2 = 0.64), one can estimate CY 2015 expenditures.
Estimated Federal fire suppression costs for CY 2015 are 2.5 billion 2014$.
But remember: “Global warming is a total, and very expensive, hoax!”!!!