Weekly data and Google/big data through July 16th, on the US economy (follow up on Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, as well as “So you think we might be in recession as of mid-June”, Part I and Part II).
Source: NY Fed via FRED.
And here is Baumeister et al. Weekly Economic Conditions Index through June 25th.
Source: Baumeister et al. WECI.
And here is a snapshot of some key business cycle indicators that the NBER’s BCDC looks at:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2021M06=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (7/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
Update, 1:40pm Pacific:
CEA has just released a blog post on how the NBER determines recession dates. Here’s a key graph:
Source: CEA (2022).