Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Which Observation Is Not Like the Others: US Inward FDI Again

Plotting nominal dollar value of inward FDI understates the collapse in inflows. Here is the ratio to GDP, and — considering how FDI covaries with the stock market’s level — the real S&P 500 (As I recall, working on this topic during the dot.com boom, the dollar’s strength was the other important factor — but that hasn’t changed much over the last three years.)

Continue reading

Out of Sample Regression Prediction of Mass Shooting Fatalities

Does a Trump dummy “work”? Reader sam writes:

i think you’re putting too much weight into too few observations.

Some things to make your analysis more convincing 1) show the if predictive accuracy increased with a trump dummy OUT OF SAMPLE or 2) try placing the ‘trump dummy’ variable a few months before or a few months after and see if that changes the coefs. i doubt you’ll see much of an effect.

Continue reading