Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Mass Shooting Casualties Trending Up (Again)


Figure 1: 12 month moving average of mass shooting casualties; deaths (dark red), wounded (pink). Source: Mother Jones, for January 2016, and author’s calculations.

Update, 2/5 1:45PM Pacific: Title amended to address m4570d0n‘s pedantic comment.

Update, 2/6, 10:30AM Pacific: Reader joe argues per capita figures would be more intuitively accessible. Here is the relevant graph.


Figure 2: 12 month moving average of mass shooting casualties per million; deaths (dark red), wounded (pink). Source: Mother Jones, for January 2016, and author’s calculations.

Note: Mother Jones used a 4 death threshold for definition of mass shooting; I have used that criterion for tabulating January 2016 numbers.

Wisconsin Governor Walker: “The state of our state is strong!”

That’s the first line of an op-ed published Monday. In other news, Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (NFP) and private nonfarm payroll employment is decreasing. And NFP lagging what should be the case if the historical correlation between national and Wisconsin employment held, after Governor Walker’s inauguration.


Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (blue), forecast from error correction model estimated over 1990M03-2009M06 (red), and 90% confidence band (gray lines), all on log scale. Dashed line at 2011M01 when Walker takes office, and light green denotes sample period. Source: BLS, author’s estimates (as described here).

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Guest Contribution: “Asset Valuations and Recession Risks”

We are fortunate to present today a Guest Contribution written by John Kitchen (U.S. Treasury). Any views or opinions expressed are solely those of the author and not of the Treasury Department or any other institution.

With the recent declines in valuations in financial markets, an analysis based on “Relative Valuations of Fixed Capital and Financial Assets in the United States” indicates that we are in a “gray area” regarding the signaling of a heightened risk of recession.

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