Answer: Yes, and (to a lesser extent) Yes.
Are Imports a Leading or Contemporaneous Indicator of Recession?
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
SIFMA Semiannual Survey – the Outlook for Growth
“2023 GDP growth expected at +0.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q); 2024 expected at +1.7%” (SIFMA stands for Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) From the Report.
Why Consumption Has Been Sustained
The permanent income hypothesis in its RatEx-no liquidity constraint version says that consumption will adjust upward fully in response to a windfall. This will mean it will take a while to decumulate the “excess savings” transferred during the pandemic. How much remains? Here’s a guess from Torsten Slok:
The Budget Balance to GDP Ratio: Actual & Cyclically Adjusted
From CBO today:
Forecasts vs. Nowcasts and the Receding Downturn
The pattern of forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters over the past three quarters suggests a receding downturn. Today’s Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for Q2 seems to confirm that no downturn occurred in 2023Q2.
Inflation: A Decomposition to Profits, Unit Costs
For nonfinancial corporate business sector, using price per unit real gross value added.
Business Cycle Indicators, Relative to January 2023
New Deal Democrat suggests normalizing on 2023M01 instead of to 2022M11. Here’re the NBER BCDC indicators, plus monthly GDP, as well as a slew of others, since then.
The Reliability of Employment Measures from CES
Alternate measures of conceptually similar to NFP and private NFP continue to rise.
Business Cycle Indicators at June’s Start: Where’s the Recession?
Nonfarm payroll employment growth far exceeded consensus, at 339K vs 180K. With April’s monthly GDP from SPGMI, we have the following picture of indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (along with monthly GDP):
Guest Contribution: “Solving Western Water Shortages”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.