Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Federal Spending Implications of the House GOP Tax Plan: $25 bn Off of Medicare …

As noted in this earlier post, the distributional consequences of the House Tax Cuts and Jobs Act should include the spending cuts. According to CBO, there will be a $25 billion cut to Medicare unless independent legislation is passed. From TPM:

…automatic cuts spring into action anytime Congress passes a bill that balloons the federal deficit, as the tax bill would. The approximately $136 billion in cuts spurred by the GOP tax bill would hit a number of government programs—including farm subsidies and the Border Patrol—but would cut most deeply into Medicare. Medicaid, Social Security, and food stamps are protected.

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The Real Adrenaline Shot? Kansas since the End of the Brownback Experiment

Kansas employment nosedived in June, and has bounced back since the Brownback tax cut was rolled back. Kansas employment is catching up with Missouri after lagging. The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident and leading indices also point to a recovery in Kansas.



Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Kansas (blue), on log scale. Source: BLS.

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Quarterly Census Data on Wisconsin Manufacturing: More on Premature Triumphalism

Recall the Walker Administration termed the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) the “gold standard” of employment measures. I thought it useful to compare the QCEW figures on manufacturing against the establishment survey. Here is the twelve month growth rate under the two measures (the QCEW data is not seasonally adjusted).



Figure 1: 12 month log difference in Wisconsin manufacturing payroll employment from establishment survey (CES) (blue), and from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) (red). Light brown shaded area denotes period where CES data has not been benchmarked using QCEW data. Source: BLS, DWD and author’s calculations.

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