Wells Fargo Economics analyses the extent of the current slowdown, and contemplates the impact on regional economies. Here’s the heat map:
I’m not a China expert, but 20 years ago, I had the opportunity to hear the Chinese explanation for their planned policies in Western China (Xibu Dakaifa), translated in English journalistic accounts as “Develop the West” (I was the international finance economist on the Council of Economic Advisers at the time, and the Chinese counterpart, the State Development Planning Commission, was coming to Washington to meet with us; I was tasked with overseeing elements of the meeting).
Industrial production finally rises above levels in 2020M02 (the latest NBER peak). We now have the following picture of the macroeconomy (for some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC).
From BBVA (Jinyue Dong & Le Xia) today, discussing August data: “China | Worse-than-expected growth deceleration exposed the vulnerability of its anti-virus strategy”:
From the Wisconsin Department of Revenue – September issue. The regular publication of Economic Forecast reports (latest here) and the innovation of monthly updates contrasts strongly with the near economic news blackout in the second Scott Walker administration (discussed here). DoR has also added a lot more data visualizations, here.
Typical headline – “U.S. Consumer Price Growth Cools, Smallest Gain in Seven Months“, and “Treasuries Rally After CPI Seen Pushing Off Taper: Markets Wrap” or “Consumer prices climbed more slowly in August, welcome news for the Fed“. Here’re the graphical depictions of the undershoot, first in levels (updating graph from yesterday’s post).
Goldman Sachs Current Activity Indicator (CAI) dips into negative territory in August. Since the CAI is scaled to GDP annualized growth, this implies negative GDP growth in that month.
[For my Econ 435 students] Consider the following graphs. Figure 1 is M1 and M2 to real GDP (0.80 means 80%) for the United States. Figure 2 is M1 to real GDP on left scale, and CPI-all urban on the right scale (taking on a value of 100 in the period 1982-84).