A picture (or two) is worth a thousand words:
Business Fixed Investment ex-IIP and Policy Uncertainty
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?
There’s a view that civilian employment (household series) peaks before nonfarm payroll employment (establishment series). If true, then time to worry.
The Age of Angst? Macro Implications
Source: NYT, July 6, 2025.
The OBBB alters the path of deficits relative to current law by a substantial amount, but not too much relative to current policy. However, the composition of overall spending and taxes is altered considerably relative to both current law and current policy. Relative to current law:
Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
Measured trade policy uncertainty, from Baker, Bloom and Davis, and Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo:
Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down
So the sector overall looks like it’s in the doldrums:
Central Bank Gold Holdings
A World Gold Council headline “Central bank gold buying picks up in May”.
Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers Nowcasts Decelerate
Atlanta Fed downgrades Q2 (GS ups from 0):
Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP
June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P Global monthly GDP flat over the last six months through May, many key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) are flat or falling (although NBER places primary emphasis on employment, which is still rising, along with personal income).
Private NFP Downside Surprise
+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K.
ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful for nowcasting the BLS series (coming out tomorrow). But using the relationship between the two series 2022M01-2025M05, what can we expect?