Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

“Exchange Rate Models for a New Era: Major and Emerging Market Currencies”

That’s the title of an upcoming conference organized by Global Research Unit at Department of Economics and Finance, City University of Hong Kong, Bank for International Settlements, Asian Office, Centre for Economic Policy Research, and Journal of International Money and Finance, May 18-19 at City University Hong Kong. The conference program is here, official conference website here.

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EconoFact: “Import Limits on Steel and Aluminum: Protecting National Security or Protectionism?”

That’s the title of my article at EconoFact today.

The Issue:

The Trump Administration has proposed a number of trade related measures purportedly on the basis of national security. The first involves invoking a seldom-used provision of the trade law to investigate whether imposing import restrictions for steel and aluminum is justified by national security reasons. The second is the creation of a new White House office, the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, superseding and replacing the National Trade Council established at the outset of the Trump Administration.

The question is whether the threats posed to national security are genuine, or merely a means of protecting domestic industries under the guise of national security.

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Stock Prices around October 20, 1973 (The Saturday Night Massacre)

Reader Julian Silk asks what happened to indicators around the Saturday Night Massacre, when President Nixon fired the Independent Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. The Baker, Bloom and Davis daily version of the Economic Policy Index only extends back to 1985. Here is the Nasdaq around that date. Since October 20th was a Saturday, the relevant dates are 10/19 and 10/22.



Figure 1: Nasdaq index, June 1973-January 1974.

The Nasdaq rose slightly today. The true issue is what happens as events unfold.

What Is FinCEN?

Several accounts [1] [2] [3] have noted that the Senate Intelligence Committee has requested information regarding related to President Donald Trump, his senior officials and his campaign staffers from the Treasury’s FinCEN. What is FinCEN?

It’s shortened form for “Financial Crimes Enforcement Network”.

From the official website:

The mission of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network is to safeguard the financial system from illicit use and combat money laundering and promote national security through the collection, analysis, and dissemination of financial intelligence and strategic use of financial authorities.

For the record, the current acting director is Jamal El-Hindi (as of 2:22PM Pacific).