That’s a title of a Bloomberg article, coming right after the Trump (temporary?) retreat on Greenland related tariffs. Economic Policy Uncertainty is likely to stay elevated for a while.
Typical reporting of overall economic output is based on the expenditure approach — that is measuring spending on final goods and services. There are however three approaches — the income and value added in addition to expenditure — which up to depreciation should be equivalent. What do the expenditure and income approaches indicate?
Today, we’re fortunate to have a guest contribution by Jeffry Frieden, Professor of International and Public Affairs and Political Science at Columbia University.
Trump takes military action off the table (for the nonce):
Here’s a picture:
Official vs. Implied Preliminary, Powell conjecture to preliminary, Early Benchmark, CPS adjusted to NFP concept, and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Treasury 10 year and VIX, as of 4pm CT today:
While the mean forecast is for around 2.2% growth in 2026 (see this post), the trimmed 20% band suggests some downside risks.
Compared against CBO, GS tracking: