Official statistics suggest the country is below recent business cycle peak.
Russian GDP in Question
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Six Estimates of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Early Benchmark suggests a downturn, as does QCEW, Powell conjecture:
The Year in Review, 2025: I wanted lower prices, and all I got is this lousy hole in the ground
Here are some of the most ridiculous (and tragic) events of 2025, in economic or economic policy terms.
Guest Contribution: “Why didn’t Trump’s tariffs crash the economy in 2025?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in The Guardian and in Project Syndicate.
The PRC’s Intimidation Campaign
Chinese forces are conducting a massive military exercise in the areas surrounding Taiwan — a major economic power and supplier of semiconductor chips essential to the world (and US) economy (true in 2022, true today).
The Heritage Foundation and the Economics Implosion Foretold
Anybody who read “Trade”, Chapter 26 of Project 2025, could have foreseen the split and eventual purge of the Heritage Foundation, at least on the economic policy dimension (not that we knew which side would get purged). To say the chapter is schizophrenic is an understatement of the highest order. Peter Navarro wrote “The case for fair trade” while Kent Lassman wrote “The case for free trade”.
Corporate Profit Peaks and Business Cycle Peaks
Unsurprisingly, the former leads the latter, but the lag is (highly) variable.
2025Q3 4.3% q/q AR Growth in Context
GDP growth of 4.3% far exceeded the 3.3% consensus forecast. However, as a survivor of the 2001 “is it or not” recession debate*, I think it useful to consider the revisions that occur to GDP growth. Here’s a picture of levels of GDP for 2001, according to different vintages.
EJ Antoni: “The truth about the Heritage Foundation’s economic principles”
EJ Antoni writes a letter to WaPo editors:
“that the Heritage Foundation has become a protectionist bivouac. Au contraire, Heritage has been, is, and will continue to be a bastion of free-market conservatism.”
A Holiday Memo: NBER BCDC and Alternative Indicators
With a surprising outcome in GDP [Hamilton/Econbrowser] [Chinn/Econbrowser], recall that other indicators are relevant, particularly given the record of GDP revisions over time.