And California and Minnesota surge ahead of the US. I know this sounds like a broken record, but the numbers are the numbers. And reader Patrick R. Sullivan suggests I move to Kansas (based on a Tax Foundation analysis). Here’s at least one reason why I don’t plan to. From today’s release of leading indices by the Philadelphia Fed, combined with last week’s release of coincident indices.
Or, the self-rehabilitation effort continues. In a WSJ op-ed entitled “Government Forecasters Might as Well Use a Ouija Board”, he writes:
My analysis of 1999-2013 reveals that the CBO’s real GDP growth forecasts for the next year were off, on average, by 1.7 percentage points, either too high or low. Administration forecasts were similarly off by a slightly larger 1.8 percentage points on average, also to high or too low. Given that the average growth rate during this period was only 2.1%, errors of this magnitude are substantial.
Integration, cointegration and the evaluation of time series data for public policy analysis. As my first economics teacher said, “ya gotta be careful”.
Those are the topics covered in the West Coast Workshop on International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, held October 17, 2014, and co-organized by Helen Popper (University of Santa Clara) and Michael Hutchison (UC Santa Cruz). The agenda is here (co-sponsored by SCU, UCSC, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco).
The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development released without fanfare (well, there is no press release I see on the DWD media website as of 3pm CDT today) the last figures to be available before the election. They indicate September private nonfarm employment 108.6 thousands below the trend consistent with the Governor’s target (recommitted to a mere year ago) of 250 thousands net new jobs.
That’s the title to today’s article in Reuters. I’ve been surprised that the Russian economy has taken as much a hit as it has, partly in response to sanction and spillover effects onto confidence from those sanctions. I think the skeptics of the efficacy of sanctions for hitting the Russian economy will have to re-assess.