From BBC:
Russia’s central bank has unexpectedly raised its key bank interest rate over concerns about inflation and “geopolitical tension”.
Russia Raises the Policy Rate
21 Replies
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Forward Premia and the Carry Trade
I was at the NBER Summer Institute’s meeting of the International Finance and Macro group where (in addition to finally meeting Jim Hamilton) I had the opportunity to hear two papers on a topic near and dear to me — namely the relationship between the forward premium (the gap between the forward and spot rate, or equivalently in the absence of political risk, the interest differential) and the carry trade. (For discussion of related papers at last year’s IFM, see this post).
On Perusing the Comments Sections
Unanchored
In a recent article, Amity Shlaes asserts official statistics mismeasure how we experience inflation. I’m going to agree, but not for the reasons you might think. It’s not because John Williams’ Shadowstats, which she appeals to, is right (Jim has comprehensively documented why each and every person who cites that source should be drummed out of the society of economists or aspiring economic commentators). Rather it’s because I think people do have biases — i.e., the steady-state rational expectations hypothesis might not be applicable.
Declining Private Employment in Wisconsin, Sideways Trending in Kansas
State level employment data will be released by the BLS on Friday, but state agencies have already released data (h/t J. Miller) confirming that Wisconsin private employment performance deteriorates, while Kansas continues to trend sideways. So much for the benefits of a high ALEC-Laffer ranking.
Guest Contribution: Taylor Rule Legislation
Today, we’re fortunate to have Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Assistant Professor of Economics at Lehigh University, David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, respectively Professor and Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, as Guest Contributors
Monthly GDP
After the shocker of -2.9% growth (SAAR) in 2014Q1, all eyes have been on Q2. Macroeconomic Advisers released its estimate for May — a 0.2% increase on April (2% on an annualized basis).
An Exchange Regarding Asset Price and Inflation Implications of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the Wake of 2008
This is not the most erudite debate, but it pretty much sums up matters.
Russia Stalls
From Reuters today:
Russia’s economy is stagnating as data showed on Wednesday that capital worth $75 billion has left the country so far this year following sanctions on Moscow over its involvement in Ukraine.
Airbrushing History: ACA Edition
Reader Rick Stryker writes, after asserting Paul Krugman has misrepresented history:
…apologists fall back on the claim that Obamacare is a conservative idea. … That’s nonsense.