With October personal income and September manufacturing and trade sales reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators:
Business Cycle Indicators as of November 25th
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Covid-19 Weekly Fatalities and Excess Fatalities, as of November 25
Fatalities are rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).
Stephen Moore: “Trump’s super recovery”
Title of an article a few days ago:
Wisconsin Employment Down
From Wisconsin DWD this afternoon:
[T]he data shows that Wisconsin total non-farm jobs decreased by 14,700 and 2,700 private-sector jobs in the month of October.
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate for October was 5.7 percent, up from 5.4 percent in September.
Macroeconomic Policy, Midterm 2 (Nov 18) – Revisiting the Tax Cut & Jobs Act
How would you answer Question 2?
Business Cycle Indicators, November 17
With October industrial production reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators:
The Real Cost of Treasury Borrowing
Halfway through November, TIPS 10 year at -0.876% and ten year adjusted for median expected inflation (from November Survey of Professional Forecasters, released today) at -1.264%.
A Double Dip Recession – Odds Rising?
Baseline scenario is for continued — albeit moderating growth — at least according to the WSJ November survey. However, the reality of rapidly ascending Covid-19 caseload, hospitalization, and fatality rates may force a quick rethink. From The Hill today:
Treasury Borrowing Rates – Nominal and Real
Rising government debt-to-GDP ratios should be viewed in the context of borrowing costs. Below, three-and-a-half decades of ten year Treasury yields.
A Public Service Announcement: Judy Shelton Does Not Believe in US Government Statistics
The below is a republication of a post from July 19, 2019 entitled “What Does Judy Shelton Believe GDP Growth and Inflation Are in 2019?” in response to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel’s invocation of cloture on the nomination of Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
In a 2015 Cato Institute session, Fed Board Nominee Judy Shelton discusses whether to trust or not official GDP and inflation statistics (she says no — see 1:07:07) (h/t Sam Bell).