Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

Ashok Mody at UW: “EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts”

On Wednesday, October 17.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018, 12:00PM – 2:00PM
Location: Grainger Hall, 975 University Avenue, Plenary Room
Asoka Mody, visiting professor in international economic policy at Princeton University, will discuss his recent book, followed by comments from La Follette School Professors Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch.

Sponsored by the La Follette School of Public Affairs, Center for European Studies, University Lectures Fitch Fund, Department of Political Science.

Contact: [email protected].

Ashok’s guest posts here: A Program for Greece: Follow the IMF’s Research, The ECB and the Fed: A Comparative Narrative, The European Central Bank’s Lack of Accountability Has Consequences, and The ECB’s Strong Euro Problem

Trump: “I think the Fed has gone crazy”

Implicitly, Trump is saying John Taylor is crazy, since the original Taylor rule would imply even faster rises in the Fed funds rate (I am inferring from Professor Taylor’s discussion of neutral rates. Below I plot the implied Fed funds rate, assuming no interest rate smoothing, the Laubach-Williams one-sided estimate of the real natural rate, and a target variable of 4 quarter PCE inflation.

Continue reading

I’m Already Tired of Winning: MidWest Ag Trade Edition

A reader alerts me – from CNBC, indications farmers are going to take a hit, as export volume drops off a cliff.

United States tariffs are beginning to take their toll on farmers and the storage, shipping and freight operations they need to move their crops to market.

In North Dakota, soybeans from 2017 are still in storage after China pulled its contracts. Of the 15.9 million bushels left from that year’s crop, 12.1 million bushels are sitting in grain elevators. That is an increase of 68 percent.

Continue reading