Wisconsin nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment is 63.2 thousand below what historical correlations with national employment would imply.
That’s the title of a book commissioned by the Norges Bank on the bicentennial of the Bank’s founding, and edited by Michael D. Bordo, Øyvind Eitrheim, Marc Flandreau and Jan F. Qvigstad (published by Cambridge University Press). Here’s the table of contents:
Today, we are pleased to present a guest column written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column appearing at Project Syndicate, July 13.
Do shocks to agriculture and aircraft really explain Kansas’s dismal economic performance? If only one looked at Kansas GDP, would Kansas look just terrific?
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Michael Devereux at the University of British Columbia and Wei Dong and Ben Tomlin at the Bank of Canada. The views expressed below are those of the authors and do not represent those of the Bank of Canada. This post is based on a revised version of this paper.
Dark warnings were voiced in the wake of the passage of the minimum wage ordinance. “Seattle’s Minimum-Wage Hike Is Sure to End in Disaster”. “Seattle sees fallout from $15 minimum wage” In an early — and widely debunked — assessment, Mark J. Perry writes “New evidence suggests that Seattle’s ‘radical experiment’ might be a model for the rest of the nation not to follow”.
There’s an argument being made that because of the zero lower bound, the standard nominal term spread is unlikely to be as accurate a predictor of recessions as it has in the past. A prominent example of this view circulating now is that forwarded by Deutsche Bank’s Dominic Konstam; his analysis indicates a 60% likelihood of recession (WSJ RTE), in contrast to the estimates obtained from the standard model, ranging in the low teens (see for example this post).
But still looks darned high. Wonder what it is in the UK…