A lot of chatter about a sugar high coming from the passage of the American Rescue Plan, previous fiscal and monetary measures, combined with the increase in CPI inflation. Time to step back and assess.
Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations.
Remember this Kevin Hassett projection of Covid-19 deaths, from May 2020?
As a share of debt held by the public (i.e., excluding intragovernmental holdings).
Coming down for June, according to the University of Michigan survey of consumers.
The surprise in inflation for the March, April, and May reference month releases induced respectively 2, 4, and 6 basis point upward moves in the 5 year inflation breakevens — hardly earthshaking.
May CPI inflation surprised on the upside, with month-on-month 0.6% vs 0.4% (not annualized) Bloomberg consensus, year-on-year 5% vs 4.7%. Note that May’s 0.6% month-on-month is below April’s 0.8%, highlighting the decline in high-frequency inflation. We have the following readings on inflation (month-on-month):
Even before Covid-19 struck, Wisconsin exports were declining despite a sideways-trending dollar…
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.