Author Archives: Menzie Chinn

The Economic Report of the President, 2015

The entire report was released today, covering the “…progress of the recovery and explores the long-term factors that drive middle-class incomes,…the macroeconomic performance of the U.S. economy during 2014, …the opportunities and challenges facing the U.S. labor market, …how American family lives have changed over the last half-century and the implications of these changes for our labor market, …productivity growth with an examination of business tax reform, ..the profound transformation of the U.S. energy sector” and “…the United States in the context of the global economy.”

CEA Chair Jason Furman, CEA Members Maurice Obstfeld, and Betsey Stevenson summarize the report’s findings here.

“Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound”

Why do interest rate differentials point in the wrong direction for subsequent exchange rate changes at short horizons, and not at long? And why have interest differentials at long maturities failed in recent years to predict subsequent exchange rate changes as well as in the past, especially for interest rates near the zero lower bound. Those are two topics taken up in a recent paper by myself and Yi Zhang (University of Wisconsin).

Continue reading

The Low-Pay Recovery, Re-Assessed

From the Senate Republican Policy Committee Chair, John Barrasso, commenting on the December employment report:

The December jobs report, while posting 252,000 new jobs, reveals it’s still too soon to be bullish on an economic recovery. Wage data and labor force participation remain concerning.

Stagnant wage growth remains a weight on America’s economic recovery. In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by five cents, to $24.57.

Continue reading