That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September.
FT-Booth GDP Forecast for 2025: 1.6%
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Nowcasting Private NFP for September
We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford Digital Laboratory series (which missed consensus by 84K on the downside)
September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADP
Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]
In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society at UW Madison .
White House Pulls EJ Antoni Nomination to BLS Chief
World Bank: “Accelerating Investment: Challenges and Policies”
A new volume from the World Bank, Office of Chief Economist:
Guest Contribution: “How do UK and Australia relations with China react to US-China shocks”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes).
CBO on Economic Costs of a Shutdown
Letter released today:
Conference Board: “A sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation weighed on confidence”
Per release today. In standardized terms, U.Michigan Sentiment and Conference Board Confidence are at the same level in September.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]
In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society at UW Madison .