The FT-Booth Macroeconomist Survey was released today. GDP is slated to grow 2.1% in 2024, q4/q4.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Is the Fed Looking at FAIT? If so, What Would It Imply?
A reader takes issue with my post showing y/y and instantaneous core PCE deflator versus 2% target, noting (correctly) that as of 2020, the Fed’s new monetary strategy incorporates Flexible Average Inflation Targetting (FAIT). While I might have missed it, I don’t recall how one should operationalize FAIT in terms of graphs and rates of reversion to trend lines. The reader gives no guidance, merely a criticism, so I will update what I’ve posted before.
Immigration 2021-23: Supply and Demand Shock
Or, why has the US done so well. Part of it’s immigration. From Goldman Sachs “Upgrading Our GDP and Payrolls Forecasts to Reflect Elevated Immigration (Walker)” released yesterday:
How Close to Target?
Technically, the Fed targets the PCE deflator, but many use the core PCE as a proxy. I show what the data indicate, including the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast as of 3/14 for February.
X-Files, 2024 Edition
On mainstream economists hiding information regarding the BEA’s development of distributional national accounts, reader John Hofer wrote in January of 2024:
“Grocery Prices Have Soared. That’s Spoiling Biden’s Economic Pitch”
That’s the title of an article in Bloomberg today.
Republicans/Lean-Republicans and the Biden Effect on Economic Sentiment
Here’s a plot to economic sentiment as recorded by the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, by political affiliation:
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-March 2024
Industrial production near consensus, while manufacturing surprises on upside (+0.8% vs. +0.3% m/m). Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP (formerly from Macroeconomic Advisers and IHS-Markit).
“Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say”
That’s the title of an article by S. Ganguly for Reuters.
Nearly two-thirds of strategists in a March 6-12 Reuters poll of bond market experts, 22 of 34, said the yield curve’s predictive power is not what it once was.
Russian Growth Slows
From BOFIT today (translated by Google):