From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, numbers that perhaps better represent the trajectory of aggregate demand.
Nowcasting “Core GDP”
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Pass-Through
A random thought on Trump’s moves to depreciate the dollar and to implement broad and high tariffs. The dollar has depreciated on a real trade weighted basis by about 6.6% in December (in log terms). Average effective tariff rates have risen from about 2% to 12%. What’s the impact on import prices, based on earlier estimates?
Import Trends: Output, Policy Uncertainty, and/or Tariffs
As i was producing some extra slides for my macro course, I generated this graph:
BLS Commissioner Nominee Brett Matsumoto
Articles or comments in peer reviewed journals, per Google Scholar:
PPI Blows Past Expectations
M/M PPI +0.5% vs.+ 0.2% Bloomberg consensus; m/m core PPI +0.7% vs. +0.2% consensus. Here’s instantaneous (per Eeckhout, 2023) PPI and PCE vs q/q CPI:
Kevin Warsh on Executing Monetary Policy
Kamin & Sobel: “Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance”
In the FT today:
Confidence Tanks
A one standard deviation drop is no small thing. Actual at 85.4 vs. 90.5 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised 94.2.
Donald Trump Is Unworried about the Dollar’s Value
According to Bloomerg. No doubt the USD is losing in value in nominal terms against a basket of currencies as well gold, since the weekend.
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2023!
Just published, Chinn-Ito index, available here. Normalized to [0,1], with 1 being most open, here’s the world.