Remember when critics wailed about the high cost/per job saved and low multipliers likely under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act? The same set of people do not seem very bothered at all by the relatively small implied output impact of the TCJA produced by any of the reasonable modelers.
Figure 1: Kansas real GDP in mn.Ch.2009$ SAAR (black) and log linear deterministic trend based on 2005-2010 (red), a log difference stationary fit* (green) all on log scale. Source: BEA and author’s calculations.
Not a record year yet, but still devastating. The upward trend in acres burned is shown below.
Figure 1: Ten year minus three month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year minus three month Treasury spread (blue). December observations pertain to 12/6 daily observation. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, NBER and author’s calculations.