Source: NYT, July 6, 2025.
The OBBB alters the path of deficits relative to current law by a substantial amount, but not too much relative to current policy. However, the composition of overall spending and taxes is altered considerably relative to both current law and current policy. Relative to current law:
Measured trade policy uncertainty, from Baker, Bloom and Davis, and Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino, and Raffo:
So the sector overall looks like it’s in the doldrums:
A World Gold Council headline “Central bank gold buying picks up in May”.
Atlanta Fed downgrades Q2 (GS ups from 0):
June NFP beats consensus on the back of education and health services employment, while private NFP surprises downside. With S&P Global monthly GDP flat over the last six months through May, many key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) are flat or falling (although NBER places primary emphasis on employment, which is still rising, along with personal income).
+74K vs. +110K Bloomberg consensus. My nowcast based on ADP suggested +66K.
ADP private NFP change came in at -33K, vs. +99K Bloomberg consensus. It’s well known that the ADP series is not particularly helpful for nowcasting the BLS series (coming out tomorrow). But using the relationship between the two series 2022M01-2025M05, what can we expect?
From CRFB on 6/25 “CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions”:
As per basic analysis of tariffs. Data through June 26(!).