In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.
Big Mac Nation and Recession since 2022
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Mid-October Reading on Business Cycle Indicators – NBER BCDC and Alternatives
Industrial and manufacturing production below consensus (-0.3% m/m vs -0.1%, -0.4% vs -0.1%, respectively), while retail sales and core retail sales above consensus (+0.4% m/m vs +0.3%, +0.5% vs +0.1%, respectively). Here’s the resulting two pictures, first one for those indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, and the second one alternatives.
Fed Inflation Credibility Measured
Has the Fed lost credibility, as some people have argued (e.g., EJ Antoni)?
WSJ October Survey: GDP On the Rise
Only one forecaster projects two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Gasoline and Oil Prices
As of Mid October for Gasoline:
September Real Median Household Income Estimated
Above Pre-Covid peak. From Motio Research:
Inflation: A Discussion in Milwaukee
A Main Street Agenda town hall meeting on inflation to be held today, Tuesday, Oct. 15, from 6 to 8 p.m. at the Clinton Rose Senior Center, 3045 N. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. Register here. American Press Institute/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/Wisconsin Public Radio/Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs. Livestreamed here.
Guest Contribution: “Social Security Reform: Between a Cliff and a Hard Place”
Today we present a guest post written by Lindsay Jacobs, Assistant Professor at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.
Recession since 2022? A Magic Asterisk-Mystery Meat-Special Sauce Approach to National Income Accounting
In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.
Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”
Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%.