CDC has defined 4 criteria for relaxing restrictions (called “gating criteria). Only two states now meet all the criteria, a lot meet 0 or only 1 — 11 states.
Source: Goldman-Sachs, 7/1/2020.
Florida meets none; Texas meets 1, but is just teetering on slipping into none.
From Wells Fargo’s mobility trends report, today (for Google data thru 27th, Apple data thru 29th):
These types of data are used to infer economic activity at the regional level. Note that this data is not seasonally adjusted.
ADP releases its figure for private nonfarm payroll. Bloomberg consensus is for BLS is for an increase.
The obvious question: will July register an increase, as restrictions are re-instituted?
From Trinity College Dublin:
CALL FOR PAPERS
IM-TCD half-day workshop on:
International Capital Flows and Financial Globalisation
Date: December 17th, 2020
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Valerio Ercolani, from the Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research at the Bank of Italy. The views expressed in this note represent that of the author and not necessarily reflect those of Bank of Italy.
Guess it didn’t disappear, like a miracle.
Source: I. Rosenberg, “Global Economics Comment: Tracking Coronavirus,” Goldman Sachs, 27 June 2020.
Big positive numbers for growth — but remember the level matters.