Bill McBride’s assessment here.
CalculatedRisk (Still) on Recession Watch
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Even *More* Depressing Pictures from the Labor Market
You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives:
How Are Wisconsin Exports, Manufacturing Doing under Trump Trade War 2.0?
Discussed the employment numbers on WPR this morning. One question came up, which inspired this post – how’s Wisconsin doing, tradewise, given the states’ trade/manufacturing dependence.
Tariff Impact Watch – Retail Prices thru 7/26
UW Now Live: “Trumponomics” and the state of the U.S. economy” [updated 8/9 w/recording]
EPU and EPU-Trade Policy Uncertainty Measured
Through 8/3:
Trump’s Willing Enabler
From the NYT:
Business Cycle Indicators – A Turning Point?
Maybe, maybe not. With the employment release of Friday, here’re the pictures, first of NBER’s BCDC key indicators, and second of alternative indicators (recalling all the most recent data will be revised):
Consumers Vote on Economic Prospects
Durables consumption has experienced extreme volatility over the last 9 months (since the election). However, services and nondurables should follow the permanent income hypothesis — at least halfway (DSGE’s usually incorporate about 50% hand-to-mouth consumers). So what do we see?
Agent Chaos Strikes – Multidimensionally!
Policy uncertainty through 8/1: