Good to remember, as we come up to Russian expanded invasion +2 years. Reader JohnH (February 16th, less than a week before the “Special Military Operation”‘s commencement, ridiculing the thought that Russia was embark on further aggression:
Instantaneous, instantaneous core, and trimmed mean m/m.
For nonfinancial corporate business sector, using price per unit real gross value added.
On the last day of the month, we see m/m personal income and consumption coming out at consensus. Here’s the picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (of which personal income ex transfers and employment are key), along with SPGMI’s monthly GDP.
And sentiment down 21% relative to Biden’s start, confidence up 13%.
Growth continues.
GDP up, but GDO growing slower than GDP.
I’ve wondered about what a “soft landing” entails, and whether we are are headed toward one (see discussion of diverging forecasts, in current issue of the Economist) This is despite findings that, based on historical correlations, just about any term spread based regression will predict a recession by around mid-2024.
Reader CoRev asserts IEA forecasts are biased. Here are forecasts from US DoE Energy Information Administration.
From IEA (correction – all sources are International Energy Agency):