From CBO, a working paper by Andre R. Neveu (FDIC) and Jeffrey Schafer (CBO) on the debt sensitivity of the interest rate (DSIR):
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Intra-industry Trade Estimated
Oren Cass argues the idea of comparative advantage driving trade is outdated. I agree to a certain extent, but he doesn’t explain why. I’d say intra-industry trade (IIT) – a staple of academic research since the 1980s – is one reason, but that does not provide justification for protection. In fact, his ignorance of IIT suggests his case for protectionism is ill-founded.
When Econ 101 Isn’t Enough: Oren Cass on Trade
In Tuesday’s NYT, Oren Cass makes the case for protectionism.
Sentiment, Confidence, and Expectations: The Latter Is Down
U.Michigan consumer sentiment and Conference Board economic confidence rise. But expectations drop.
Maheshri and Winston: “The U.S.’s Decades Long 2nd Great Depression”
In RealClearPolitics, a provocative thesis, from Vikram Maheshri (U. Houston) and Cliff Winston* (Brookings):
Trump CEA Nominee: Stephen Miran
From Politico today:
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
NBER BCDC indicators discussed here. Alternative below.
An Alternative Perspective on PCE Deflator Inflation: Instantaneous Inflation
PCE deflator below 2%:
“More and more market participants don’t believe the Fed anymore.”
That’s Heritage Foundation economist EJ Antoni yesterday. Dr. Antoni continues:
Increasingly, people are realizing that the 2% target is long gone. We’re looking at 3% basically as the implicit target. Now we’re in for a lot of pain. So the question is just, is this going to be 1920 or is it going to be 1929
“Putin’s Central Banker Angers Russian Elite With Rate Hikes”
Or, “who needs a stinkin’ independent central bank, non-Trump edition.”
Could this article explain why at 1:30 AM CST as I awaited data on the Russian Central Bank’s interest rate decision… nothing happened?