From Bloomberg, “Trump Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War”:
Why Aren’t You Calling? (Trump to Beijing)
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Wisconsin Policy Forum: “Turbulence for Wisconsin’s Export Economy”
An excellent overview is provided in this report, out today — although I’d say the title likely understates the situation confronting Wisconsin.
How’s It Going? Trump on 8/9/2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
Here’s a visual sit-rep on prices for Americans.
Event Study: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
I’m coming up on lecturing on Fed independence and time consistency etc. President Trump continues to provide (depressingly) many episodes to discuss. No dearth of “current events” topics this term…
2025Q1 Stall Speed? Tracking and Betting on GDP Growth, Retail Sales Composition
GDPNow at essentially zero growth. Industrial production, retail sales (control) surprise downside.
“What soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy”
From Cui, NBC:
Dollar Dominance No More?
Steve Kamin in the FT, Goodman in the NYT, Krugman on substack, FT Editorial Board write on how Trump policy erraticism on erosion of the dollar as a safe asset/exorbitant privilege. Kamin deploys regressions to support his conclusions:
WSJ Survey of Economists – April 2025
The GDP outlook is down markedly. I was insufficiently pessimistic (relative to WSJ survey respondents) regarding the GDP outlook.
What a Difference Two Weeks Makes: NABE Economists on the “Liberation Day” Effect
From NABE two days ago, responses pre- and post-“Liberation Day”:
Expectations Continue to Fall Off a Cliff
NY Fed future financial situation “better off” revised up, but continues decline.
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