President-elect Trump has mentioned a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada. Time to think about how this would affect Wisconsin, a state that voted for Mr. Trump.
Trump 25% Tariffs: Wisconsinites “to get it good and hard”?
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Six Measures of Core Instantaneous Inflation
With the core PCE deflator, we have these measures of what’s happening to core.
Business Cycle Indicators for Biden’s Economy in October
One of the last snapshots of the Biden economy show real consumption and personal income rising, with consumption rising 0.6% (vs. consensus of 0.3%), and faster than inflation. Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Guest Contribution: “Can Musk find $2 trillion in spending cuts for Trump?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate and the Guardian.
Are You a Mainstream (Macro) Economist?
A self test (a follow up to this post):
When You Hear a Critique of Mainstream Economists (from Someone Who Doesn’t Know What “Mainstream” Economists Do), Run
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated by Lance Roberts via Zerohedge:
QCEW Employment Change Y/Y to June 2024
The percentage change is less than that for the CES estimate. Does this mean there are a lot fewer people employed that indicated by the official series (e.g. here)? Here’s data from 2023M06 onward:
Russia: Policy Rate at 21%, Official Inflation Rate at 10% (m/m annualized)
Locking up the butter in Russia (CNN). Official inflation in October was 0.8% m/m (annualize that and it’s about 10%. That’s the official inflation rate. The ex post rate is around 11% then.
Natural (but Stupid) Experiments?
Since the incoming administration has indicated the deportations will start on day one, I thought it of use to consider the sectoral impacts of a policy of mass deportation (aside from macro based ones as discussed here).
Guest Contribution: “How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same title.