When consumer sentiment drops as precipitously as it has (see here), then one has to ask if a recession is in the offing in this month. Here’s I’m using the U Michigan consumer sentiment index to determine if we’re in a recession now (i.e., not forecasting).
In Biblical contexts, War, Death, Pestilence and Famine. Well, with the Trump administration, check, check, check, and check!
From the CPI release, food at home (aka grocery) prices:
DWD released February employment numbers yesterday; DoR’s February Economic Outlook forecast was also published.
Expectations in March (prel.) at 54.2 vs. 64.3 Bloomberg consensus. Thanks, Drumpf.
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lucas Boeckelmann, Rinalds Gerinovics, and Baptiste Meunier (all ECB). This column reflects the opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.
Data available as of today, first for headline:
That’s the title of an August 21,2024 article by Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni in the Boston Herald. Here’s an update of my August 28 post:
Overtaken By Events:
Remember when GDP contracted under Biden but Dems said that wasn’t a recession? What will they say now that Trump is president? ATL Fed’s GDP nowcast for Q1 just plunged from 2.3% to -1.5% as everyone begins to realize our “growth” has just been debt-fueled gov’t spending
