IGM-FTmid -September survey:
Monthly Archives: September 2022
US, Euro Area and China GDP over the Pandemic and Recovery
Following up on the last post, here is a graph of three major economies.
World Bank: “Is a Global Recession Imminent?”
A Note by Justin Damien Guénette, M. Ayhan Kose, and Naotaka Sugawara.
Weekly Economic Activity through September 10th
Year-on-year, activity still seems to be increasing. Shown below are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) WEI, and the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US, for data up to a week ago (September 10th):
Hurricane Maria and Puerto Rico 5 Years Later
Now seems a useful time to re-assess some of the pronouncements made in the wake of the tragic disaster that struck Puerto Rico in September 2017. First, fatalities of Americans (contra Mr. Trump’s seeming assertion these were not American) were much higher than some commentators claimed. Second, arguments that economic policies undertaken in 2016 and 2017 (i.e., the austerity measures associated with PROMESA) caused more deaths than Hurricane Maria are incorrect. Finally, the economic challenges that existed before the hurricane struck — including insufficient tax revenues — remain, even as the economy has rebounded.
Did US Inflation Accelerate Relative to Euro Area?
Yes, for core, no for headline:
CEPR “The global economic consequences of the Ukraine war”
A new ebook, edited by Luis Garicano, Dominic Rohner, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro.
Business Cycle Indicators Reported as of Mid-September
With August industrial production coming in below consensus (m/m -0.2% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg), we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Guest Contribution: “U.S. Trade Deficits and Exchange Rates”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
PPI in August, and Possible Implications for the CPI
M/M PPI at Bloomberg consensus, core slightly above. At the m/m, q/q and y/y horizons.