“I acknowledge that it shows that the increase in multiple job holders is insufficient to account for the material part of increased jobs per the Establishment Survey”

That is reader Steven Kopits acknowledging his repeated assertion [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] that an increase in multiple job holders was an important factor in explaining the divergence between the household and establishment employment series.

One can also have spent 10 seconds constructing this graph (reprised from this post) to have realized the stupidity of making the original assertion once (let alone twice).

Figure 1: Difference in net job creation from nonfarm payroll series minus civilian employment series, since 2022M03 (dark blue), increase in multiple job holders since 2022M03, assuming workers increase from one to two jobs (green), and from one to three jobs (sky blue), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Multiple job holder series are BLS series LNU02026625, LNU02026631.LNU02026628.  Source: BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.

In order for multiple job holders to account for the full discrepancy, each worker who had one job at 2022M03 would’ve had to take on an additional 13 10.5 jobs by 2022M11. That seems unlikely. Just sayin’.

Not-seasonally-adjusted NFP increase 581 thousands more than (not-seasonally-adjusted) total covered Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), going from March to June 2022, as shown in Figure 2 of this post.


65 thoughts on ““I acknowledge that it shows that the increase in multiple job holders is insufficient to account for the material part of increased jobs per the Establishment Survey”

  1. pgl

    To the larger point, however, it would appear that the Establishment Survey was wrong by about a million miles — or at least a million jobs — if I understand the Fed’s analysis correctly.

    Of course this is the Philly FED which had one run of the numbers – which you have already noted is far from the only reading of the labor market reports – but Princeton Steve now thinks is THE definitive reporting of employment growth. Most of us would see the divergent reporting as something to look into with some care but not Princeton Steve who mines data to death to find one statistic no matter how suspect to report as the gospel.


    The Philly Fed is also a arm of the Republican party. Something New Deal may want to know. Completely dead to anybody that tries and swing data.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      GREGORY BOTT: Please provide your documentation for the proposition that the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is an arm of the Republican Party.

      1. Moses Herzog

        How could they be helping Republicans?? Most of the Fed’s regional banks are too busy doing other “charitable works”.







        Lest any college profs reading here worry about Richard Clarida’s future, he got a cozy/cushy job at PIMCO back in August, so Clarida won’t be forced to head to the local food pantries. Whew!!! I was worried for a second there about a member of the benevolent Fed regional Presidents (well actually Clarida was Fed Vice Chair, nominated by Republican donald trump, my bad). Speaking of PIMCO, guess which large company Clarida parked his bond fund sales proceeds with?? Think hard kids.

        “It’s all good” for the benevolent ones, “it’s all good”. No one went to prison. That was a close call for the angelic ones of the Federal Reserve system!!!!

        But here’s the moral lesson to be learned from this story children~~~the Federal Reserve, nor its leaders, are in the business of helping political parties, in order to ensure their own continued employment:

        1. Moses Herzog

          Apologies, last part of my above comment should read “neither the Federal Reserve, nor its leaders….. “

  3. Macroduck

    Stevie goes on to say:

    “To the larger point, however, it would appear that the Establishment Survey was wrong by about a million miles — or at least a million jobs — if I understand the Fed’s analysis correctly.”

    Well, you may understand the (Philadelphia*) Fed’s analysis, or not. But even if you do, you have misunderstood its implication. It’s odd that, after misunderstanding the simple math of part-time job growth, you now presume to tell us what a piece of economic research means. You get lts of stuff wrong. If you had understood the implication of the Saint Louis Fed article, you’d have written something along the lines of:

    “…it appears that the Establishment Survey may be wrong by at least a mllion jobs.”

    “May”, not “was”. You seem unable to deal with contingent reality, the situation in which something may be true, depending on future events or on facts to be established in the future. Some minds struggle with contingency, while others handle it without a hitch.

    This is rather like the H1 recession brouhaha; some folks engaged in all sorts of rhetorical jiggery pokery to argue that a recession by God happened – right about the time faux news was telling its audience that Biden had caused a recession. Other folk pointed out that faux news is not the NBER bsiness cycle dating committee and that vehicle miles traveled is not how recessions are identified. One difference in our local discussion of job growth is that New Deal Democrat is actually making an argument founded on data analysis which supports slow job growth. There was no such good-faith effort among recession cheerleaders.

    We will find out if there was a recession when the committee gets around to telling us. We’ll find out how many jobs were gained in 2022 when Census gets around to telling us. Your ill-informed declarations don’t matter.

    *There is more than one regional Federal Reserve Bank. The Philly Fed is just one of them, and there is more to the Fed than the Regional Banks. The article you referenced does not represent the thinking of “the Fed”. In fact, it doesn’t represent he thinking of the Philly Fed. Just the work of some of its people.

    1. pgl

      “*There is more than one regional Federal Reserve Bank. The Philly Fed is just one of them, and there is more to the Fed than the Regional Banks. The article you referenced does not represent the thinking of “the Fed”. In fact, it doesn’t represent he thinking of the Philly Fed. Just the work of some of its people.”

      Let me rephrase this so even little Stevie gets it. I think Stevie got his start working at Deloitte-Hungary probably helping multinationals manipulate transfer pricing. Suppose Stevie wrote some paper that declared the cost of capital for an entity was 30% even though sound financial economists would place it closer to 10%. After all – we have seen how little this incompetent consultant knows about finance. Now Stevie’s paper would not represent the view of everyone at Deloitte-US or Deloitte-Germany. But of course Stevie would tell us that all accounting firms accepted his “analysis”. Maybe someone at Mazars was impressed but come – the folks at KPMG?

    2. AS

      You often share useful information.
      Why use diminutives? Use of diminutives undermines the effectiveness of contributions.

      1. Macroduck

        AS, I respect your efforts in doing economic research. You have no business telling me or anyone else how to communicate.

        I mean that in two ways. One is simply a matter of “should”. Who are you to tell me how I should behave? The other is a matter of claimed knowledge. What evidence do you have for your claim about effectiveness? What effect do you think I mean to have?

        Surely, you understand that much of what takes place in comments is not reasoned, objective debate. The troll choir active in comments here engages in political thuggery, overt and covert. They claim things to be facts which are not facts; rebutting those errors may prevent the spread of falsehood. They engage in rhetorical trickery; pointing out the shallowness of such trickery may reduce its effect. They pose as well-informed authorities while conveying propaganda; they deserve to be ridiculed.

        I believe that “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” (Often attributed, on no evidence, to Edmund Burke.) I will oppose our local evil as I see fit. You may choose to do nothing, but make it a good, solid nothing. No lectures about manners.

        1. AS

          I am not telling your how. Use cuss words if you like, but you may dilute your effectiveness. I can’t prove it, but can it be disproved?
          I just saying I think using diminutives is a turn-off and seems to undermine the comments made. I tend not to read further when I see diminutives. Glad you are going to oppose evil. Did Burke use diminutives?

          No lectures, just disappointment.

          1. Barkley Rosser


            I could be wrong, and the policy may have changed, but my memory is that Dr. Chinn has expresssed opposition to people using certain of the strongest “cuss words,” and I think he may even delete comments that use them. I am not sure exactly which words are on the banned list and which are not. I do not think it includes all of the seven words that were once upon-a-time banned on most US mass media, or at least radio and TV. I think it may just be the worst two.

            There is no ban on using diminuitives or otherwise fooling with or altering the names of people. Macroduck is not the only person who does that and is also not the most frequent offender. I happen to agree that those thinking they are scoring points by either altering other peoples’ names or just outright making up fake insulting sounding names for others are not helping communicate their messages and are just making themselves look, well, frankly, somewhat infantile.

            BTW, I think I have occasionally indulged in some of this unuseful name calling or name altering myself, although I think I mostly avoid it.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            BTW, when recently I looked at discussion on this blog back in 2005, there was none o this name calling and twisting peoples’ names to make fun of them. None. That is a more recent degeneration.

  4. Bruce Hall

    The latest employment survey indicates most growth is in the service providing sector.

    The Fed data indicate that Nov. 2022 employment in the service sector is roughly 800,000 greater than Feb. 2020. So over 21 months that sector has increased on average about 38,000 per month. Basically, this was a recovery from 2020, not much new growth.

    Current US population is about 2 million higher than 2020.

    1. pgl

      “The latest employment survey indicates most growth is in the service providing sector.”

      Most of the recorded growth for this month only. Hey Brucie – try clicking on the other buttons. As in growth by sector for say 3 months or 12 months. You might get a very different picture.

      Try learning to write more clearly. You do real research? It ain’t ever gonna happen.

    2. pgl

      “The Fed data indicate that Nov. 2022 employment in the service sector is roughly 800,000 greater than Feb. 2020. So over 21 months that sector has increased on average about 38,000 per month.”

      Gee Brucie – we get a similar picture for all employees:

      Not sure why you are so hung up on the service sector. And of course one would not expect much net growth since Feb. 2020 given how long it took to recover from the pandemic given the utter incompetence of Trump and the serial lies from disgusting little slime like Bruce Hall.

    3. pgl

      I should congratulate Brucie for finally using FRED to access BLS data. Maybe he did not realize there was this note in the reporting:

      ‘Seasonally Adjusted’

      Good boy Brucie!!! Now let’s back to that distortion of the increase in the CPI from January 2021 to June 2022, which you put at 13.3% using some wacko second hand source that did say it was relying on BLS data but these clowns forget to tell Brucie that their data was NOT seasonally adjusted. You never did acknowledge this embarrassing little fact? BTW – I hope you do not think January and June are part of the same season. Now let’s see if even remotely understand why this matters.

      1. Bruce Hall

        Merry Christmas, pgl. Or did you think it was Flag Day coming up? Seasonality, you know.

        btw, CPI from the St. Louis Fed:
        Jan. 2021 = 262.2
        Jun. 2022 = 295.3
        Change = 12.6% seasonally adjusted (knowing full well that seasonality adjustments are backlit and change over time)

        So, your big point is that 12.6% is less than 13.3% and no one felt the pain? In the words of Menzie Chinn, “Wow, just wow.”

        But since November is 298.3 (seasonally adjusted), I have to correct my assertion that the change from June was practically nothing (0.5%) because it is actually… 1% over those 5 months or ~2% annualized which according to Nitpickers Anonymous is terribly close to the 12.6% run-up for the 18 months prior. Thanks for this BIG DEAL correction. Woohoo!

        As to why the emphasis on the service sector… https://www.bls.gov/ces/data/employment-and-earnings/2022/summarytable_202201.htm

        pgl, do you spend hours trying to come up with the most stupid snarky comment or does that stupidity come naturally?

        How’s the global warming in NYC? 70s here in Siesta Key. Golf tomorrow. I presume you’ll be playing ice hockey. I think the “seasonality” is working in my favor.

        1. Anonymous

          in metro boston tomorrow will be 55 tomorrow with a steady rain (good thing not cold enough to snow!!!)

          by saturday am it will be upper teens.

          in the northeast wait a few hours……

          maybe in a few years i will head to florida in winter.

          1. pgl

            Weather is warming up in NYC right now too although we are getting a spot of rain. I guess going to Accuweather.com is too challenging for little Brucie boy!

        2. pgl

          My point was that you rely on second hand sources that lie to you. And you just NOW figured this out? Damn you are SLOW.

        3. pgl

          “pgl, do you spend hours trying to come up with the most stupid snarky comment or does that stupidity come naturally?”

          I see – correcting your blatant errors is now snarky? Yea I did spend a little time checking the data you could not even properly source. OK Brucie boy – your stupidity is natural for you.

          Dude – if you want to follow JohnH’s lead by constantly reminding us of your utter incompetence – fine by me.

        4. pgl

          “So, your big point is that 12.6% is less than 13.3% and no one felt the pain?”

          Wait – is this why it took you so long to respond? You are trying to tell people that real income has declined by 12.6% over this 17 month period – even though I pointed out that nominal income over this period rose by over 15%?

          Yea Bruce Hall is not only dumb – but he is incredibly dishonest at the same time. Brucie – even a village moron like you realizes that the calculation of real income changes must consider the change in nominal income as well as the change in the price level. Now we keep asking you to learn basic economics but that is not the key issue – here. You would have to also commit to have an honest discussion, which I guess violates your core belief that only serial dishonesty is acceptable to your bosses.

  5. pgl

    “Current US population is about 2 million higher than 2020.”

    OMG – we never knew the US population grows over time. Come on Brucie – I bet your next big discovery is that the earth is not flat.

    Oh wait – you THINK you have discovered some unknown thing. That employment growth has not kept pace with population growth since the pandemic. Oh wait – even the dumbest rock on the planet knows that the employment to population ratio today is less than it was before the pandemic!


    Bruce Hall just figured this out??? Brucie is really slow after all.

    1. Bruce Hall

      gee pgl. It doesn’t occur to you that the feeble employment growth (peak to peak) might also be affected by a population growth that is twice as much as the employment gain? Even representation in the US House gets affected by changes in population. But go ahead and insist that old uncle Joe’s economy has seen massive employment gains.

      1. pgl

        WTF? Population growth is the cause of weak employment growth? I guess population growth caused COVID19. You ARE as dumb as JohnH after all. Come on Brucie – if you do not have a real point to make then maybe you should refrain from embarrassing your poor mother.

      2. Barkley Rosser


        “feeble employment growth”? The more than six million new jobs created during the first year of President Biden’s term is the all time largest increase in employment ever observed during the first year of a president’s time in office in all of US history.

  6. Anonymous

    Out this morning November forward-looking building permits decreased 11.2% MoM (vs -2.1% expectation). That is the biggest MoM decline since the depths of the COVID lockdowns.

      1. Moses Herzog

        More good news from the motherland:




        I guess the crematorium operators in China are kind of like the coffin maker in the Japanese film Yojimbo~~never happier. The crematory operators in China must think Xi Jinping is one hell of a guy. Little do they know they owe all their joyful gains to the Chinese translation of “The donald trump Pandemic Playbook”. I wonder if the China crematories give “bulk rate” discounts for families?? Three for the price of two??

        1. Moses Herzog

          Both before, during, and after my 7 years in northeast China, it often put me in a sort of “fixed state” of curiosity for 15-20 minutes, any particular moment I had for pondering things (perhaps over Harbin beer; or Laoshan beer?? Some something or other beer in Shandong they claimed was made with river water and went down smooth) how Chinese government bureaucrats liked to throw out these “catch phrases” to a populace they seemed/seem to deem as utterly ignorant. The question being “Did Beijing have any idea how comedic these phrases came across??”

          So a thought enters my mind, will Xi Jinping/Winnie-the-Poo label the Chinese’ latest mass death march “MAGA Pandemic Policy….. With Chinese Characteristics”?? Honestly I kind of want to laugh but……..

    1. Macroduck

      Here’s background to the slide in permits:


      Not exactly new news, there is a large stock of homes under construction. No need to start a bunch more if you can’t finish what’s already started. Notably, unfinished singles have begun to come down while multis are rising fast enough to keep total unfinished units rising. Multi-unit permits fell by 17% in November, not really off the charts for multis. Multi-unit starts rose in November.

      The Fed is obviously discouraging new construction, but the overhang of unfinished homes is, too. A shortage of labor and (maybe) materials is part of the problem, too. And maybe reluctance to sink more money into starts which are far from completion. You can restart a hole in the ground when the market improves.

    2. Bruce Hall

      Careful, Anonymous, or pgl will call you stupid for pointing out that economic indicator is negative. He works economics PR for the Bidens Administration when he is not consulting for Mother Jones on climate change.

      1. pgl

        WTF? You are now making out like CoRev with pointless unprovoked rants? At least it was a seasonally adjusted rant.

        OK Brucie – I do need to apologize for reminding everyone that you are incredibly dumb. After all – everyone got that a long time ago.

  7. Macroduck

    Off topic, China’s Covid epidemic-

    Here’s a take on China’s Covid situation not sponsored by China’s propaganda ministry:


    So dies the racist notion that the Chinese are “different” from the rest of us when it comes to Covid. Dr. Ding anticipates millions of deaths in coming weeks, with doubling times measured in hours rather than days.

    I had guessed that China lifting lockdown measures would help China’s economy, thereby helping the world economy. That guess now looks badly mistaken.

    Meanwhile, the mystery of how Africa was spared the worst of the Covid pandemic may have been solved; Africa wasn’t spared:


    And the post-holiday surge should just about do it for U.S. hospitals.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      It is probably a good thing that China has moved off its overblown zero Covid policy, Xi Jinping now able to do it having established his total control of party and government in China after the Party Congress. Of course, it is going to a difficult time as cases spread rapidly.

      I await with great anticipation to see a certain regular poster here to raise that 3.6 per million number dead in China due to Covid-19, although, who knows? I have seen reports that such deaths are only being reported out of Beijing and only in single digits, even as the mortuaries are also reportedly bursting. But, heck, most of those people had other underlying conditions that obviously were what killed them.

    1. Anonymous

      Is the data year-to-date 2022?

      And it looks like the US cases survival rate is 99%. Is my math erroneous?

      1. Anonymous

        worldometer data is cumulative since feb 2020

        to get peaks and valley you should download the data base and graph.

  8. pgl

    Trump’s two black friends – Candence Owens and Kayne West – are spinning some claim that George Floyd died from a drug overdose:


    Less discussed since then has been the other gut-wrenching claim made by Kanye West: That George Floyd was killed by a fentanyl overdose. “They hit him with the fentanyl,” said West. “If you look, the guy’s knee wasn’t even on his neck like that.” If you paid attention in 2021 to the trial of “the guy,” Derek Chauvin, you might recognize this argument. It is nearly identical to the defense proffered by the former Minneapolis cop’s attorneys. But West told N.O.R.E. that he lifted them from another source: the far-right media provocateur Candace Owens’ documentary, The Greatest Lie Ever Sold: George Floyd and the Rise of BLM.

    Owens has become a Rasputin-like figure in Ye’s recent meltdown. Owens and Ye’s on-again, off-again friendship goes as far back as 2018, when Kanye first donned a MAGA hat and said slavery was “a choice.” Before the Drink Champs episode, he appeared with Owens at Paris Fashion week wearing shirts he designed that read “White Lives Matter.” West was prepared to buy Owens’ husband’s fledgling anti-woke social media platform Parler, but the deal reportedly fell through. As of late, West has gone for the harder stuff, appearing with white supremacist Nick Fuentes on a recent media tour. But before that, he was attending the premiere of The Greatest Lie Ever Sold in Nashville, posing on the red carpet with Owens, just days before appearing on Drink Champs.

  9. pgl

    Expect Putin’s pet poodle JohnH to start parroting this:


    Russian President Vladimir Putin said his county is not to blame for the war in Ukraine during a televised address to military leaders on Wednesday. “What is happening is of course a tragedy, our common tragedy, but it is not a result of our policy,” Putin said, insisting the war was “the result of the policy of third countries… who have always striven for this, the disintegration of the Russian world.” Putin referred to Ukraine as a “brotherly nation,” and called Russian forces fighting there “heroes.”

    You see – it is all the fault of the United States for insisting that the old Soviet bloc is not in place with Putin being the dictator not only of Ukraine but also Hungary, Poland, Estonia, the former Yugoslavia. Yes in Putin’s mind the Eastern Europe was so much better off during the good old days of the period from 1950 to 1989. Freedom? Putin hates people’s desire to live in a free democratic nation. No – all of Eastern Europe should bow down to the Soviet king. If a people dare to stand up to Putin – kill them. Kill them all.

    Yes – Jonny boy’s boss is THAT SICK.

    1. Anonymous

      two sides to every coin…

      and neither is wholly true

      the first casualty in war (and a lot of diplomacy) is truth

        1. Anonymous

          i do not accept that putin is hitler. nor russian arms as competent as german in 1939.

          given the observable ineptitude of russian maneuver warfare i conclude threat to latvia and germany to be nil.

          do you suppose putin/the russians see entrenched ineptitude in nato that hitler saw in france and great britain in 1940? note the prussian general staff did not see it.

          1. Barkley Rosser


            Putin may not be fully as evil as Hitler, but there is absolutely zero justification for him killing many thousands of innocent civilians, large numbers of them Russian speakers he supposedly is doing this to protect, see especially the nearly total destruction of Mariuopol, a totally Russian speaking city whose population is now less than a quarter of what it was. On top of that there is apparently widespread torture of many people, the full scale of which is not yet fully accounted for.

            Yes, Kirill is supporting Putin’s utterly immoral exercise, and this piece of garbage will burn in hell for it. His actions are causing a massive split in the Russian Orthodox Church itself, with basically all other branches of the broader Orthodox denomination denouncing this invasion.

            The Roman Catholic Church was split, with lots of covert cooperation with the Nazis. Not every German general faced what you claim. Are you really this historically ignorant?

          2. Barkley Rosser


            On this matter of there being “two sides two evety coin,” such a line could and can be uaed rto defend Hitler. He had many supportets in the US back in 1940 and 41, with prominent “America First” members such as Charles Lindbergh among them. He has defenders in the US today, some of whom recently dined with Donald Trump.

            Heck, Germany had grievances. Supposedly the Versaillee Tretay unfairly took some of their territory. They were just invading other nations to get back what was really theirs, just as PUtin is claiming about Ukraine. And people he killed? Well, there were trators to “stabbed us in the back.” And while Putin himself has not gone all the way to full Hitler rhetoric, some of his supporters have, with some of them calling for the death of any Ukrainian who does not agree to be ruled by Russia, including children.

            Really. This is the sort of thing you are justifying. Do you really want to be as immoral as JohnH here?

      1. pgl

        Is this like Trump’s “there’s good people on both sides and you know it too”.

        Have fun at the KKK meetings.

        1. Anonymous


          putin and most his general do not have archbishops insisting he cannot receive their sacraments

          my bent is to knights of columbus not that southern democrat racist fraternity..

          my time in usaf caused me to have more than a bit of respect for them.

          1. Noneconomist

            You’re referring to that southern democrat racist fraternity that counted heavily on Christians like Southern Baptists, other Protestant fundamentalists, and plenty of Pentecostals to spread hate? Good that K of C has never been involved with racism or racist policies. (Wink, wink!)

  10. pgl

    Remember when Stevie was screaming RECESSION noting the Consumer Confidence survey? Odd – he has stopped babbling about this. Could the latest release be why?


    US Consumer Confidence Bounced Back in December
    The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in December following back-to-back monthly declines. The Index now stands at 108.3 (1985=100), up sharply from 101.4 in November. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 147.2 from 138.3 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 82.4 from 76.7. However, Expectations are still lingering around 80—a level associated with recession.

    “Consumer confidence bounced back in December, reversing consecutive declines in October and November to reach its highest level since April 2022,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation and Expectations Indexes improved due to consumers’ more favorable view regarding the economy and jobs. Inflation expectations retreated in December to their lowest level since September 2021, with recent declines in gas prices a major impetus. Vacation intentions improved but plans to purchase homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further. This shift in consumers’ preference from big-ticket items to services will continue in 2023, as will headwinds from inflation and interest rate hikes.”

  11. pgl

    It is common knowledge that Marjorie Taylor Greene is not so bright but catch how much she lost investing in Trump’s stupid social media play:


    A member of the U.S. Congress was one of the people who bought shares of the SPAC. Here’s a look at the potential loss the Congress member now has. What Happened: A SPAC merger to bring Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of social media platform Truth Social, public was announced in late 2021. The deal merges Trump Media & Technology Group with Digital World Acquisition Corp (NASDAQ:DWAC). The SPAC deal has faced several setbacks and investigations and has not been completed yet. Investors flocked to the SPAC in 2021 and the common shares were one of the top-performing IPOs of the calendar year. One of the investors who bought in early on DWAC shares after the deal was announced was U.S. Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican from Georgia. A filing on Oct. 26 disclosed that Greene bought $15,001 to $50,000 worth of DWAC shares on Oct. 22, 2021. Greene’s office later confirmed the trade. “This transaction was reported in compliance with House rules and provides all required details about the transaction,” Greene’s office told CNBC at the time.
    According to a tweet on the post about the purchase, Greene paid an average of $94.20 for the DWAC shares. Shares of Digital World Acquisition traded between $67.96 and $118.80 on the day Greene made her purchase.

    The story continues noting that Greene has likely lost 75% or more of her initial investment. I wonder how many of those Trump action hero figures she decided to purchase for $99 a piece?

  12. Steven Kopits

    You did the math and I was satisfied with you analysis. Not every point of inquiry or contention has to be WWIII.

    As for the larger point, yes, it appears the HH survey was essentially correct and the Establishment Survey was wildly wrong, if I believe the Philly Fed.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Steven Kopits: But you were informed of the implausibility twice (by Macroduck I believe), then by myself (once), and then only after a fourth time, acknowledged that your thesis was implausible. If you had not repeated something explained to your clearly and repeatedly that was wrong, then one would not have had to resort to this correction.

      Now, from my perspective as a teacher, I want you to continue to make and repeat these clearly erroneous arguments, as I need them as examples for my students in how *not* to do policy analysis.

      1. Steven Kopits

        What makes you think I have time to follow comments here? The vast majority of comments are pointless ad hominem attacks, so why invest the effort to read them? Honestly, this topic just doesn’t interest me that much, but clearly there was a curious discrepancy between the two data sources. The HH survey looked more likely to me, but perhaps both surveys were in fact correct. That’s my default interpretation, hence maybe the multiple jobs explained the difference. But clearly, as your math shows, it’s an order of magnitude too small to account for all of the differential. I am still inclined to think that we’re looking at some artefact of the pandemic suppression.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Steven Kopits: You made repeated comments on this subject, Macroduck made repeated responses *directly* to your comments, addressing specifically the implausibility of your argument.

          I have made several references to work by Furman, Obama CEA, and van Norden et al. about the informational content of establishment relative to household. Why you continue to split the difference between the two when almost all professional economists side with NFP is beyond me.

        2. pgl

          “What makes you think I have time to follow comments here? The vast majority of comments are pointless”

          We have to endure your pointless comments of which there are a LOT.

Comments are closed.