From Bloomberg, “Trump Says US Tariffs on Heavy Truck Imports to Start Nov. 1”:
Sometimes I Think Trump Is Determined to Push the US into Recession: Heavy Truck Tariff Edition
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Monthly Archives: October 2025
Twenty Two Days in October
That’s what Kalshi estimates the shutdown duration, as of today. What do we miss from BLS if that transpires? BEA? EIA, Census?
Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?
Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can’t answer that, but given the ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab release, one could understand why (an 82K downside surprise is not earthshaking, but not reassuring either).
Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release
My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a very wide prediction interval. This is an aggregate number; however, we can infer certain trends from the disaggregate (by firm size) numbers from ADP.
FT-Booth GDP Forecast for 2025: 1.6%
That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September.
Nowcasting Private NFP for September
We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford Digital Laboratory series (which missed consensus by 84K on the downside)
September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADP
Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have.