The forecast will be the same as reported in the Budget (see here), using data from November. Hence, will be OBE given slowdown pre-War, and post-War cost-push shock.
However, I expect a more fulsome explanation for why the Administration forecast deviated from roughly contemporaneously finalized forecasts, as shown below.
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), April Admin. 2026/Nov. 2025 (red square), November 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters (brown), IMF October WEO (teal triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, OMB, IMF WEO October update, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
As for topics, my guess — see recent reports (purely a guess — I have no contacts in the current CEA).
Pretty funny that after Vance has been busy leaking that he wanted nothing to do with a war in Iran that Trump sends him to Pakistan where he now has to own the whole mess.
You might guess that Trump is deliberately sticking it to him because he knows the outcome will be embarrassing. Vance is worried about his future candidacy and distancing himself from Trump’s disasters and Trump resenting Vance for making him look like a lame duck. Just more of the usual dysfunctional palace intrigue.
Iran demanded that Vance be the lead U.S. negotiator. They apparently see him as the most trustworthy, because he opposed the war.
They reportedly refused to accept Witkoff or Kushner as lead negotiator. Both men are there, despite Iran’s distrust. And distaste; something about Zionism?
Isn’t that Little Marco’s job? After all, Hilliary Clinton and John Kerry as Secretaries of State negotiated the previous JCPOA agreement with Iran. Once again he is just a potted plant sitting on the side — that is, when he’s not abasing himself to his Dear Leader shuffling around in oversized shoes.
Oh, wait. Found him. At the very moment Vance announces the failure of Iran negotiations, Marco is at an Ultimate Fighting Championship bout in Miami with Trump. This follows Trump’s address to the Saudi Investors Forum in Miami. Both Trump and Marco seem very focused on what’s really important.
The NYPost says Roger Stone says Vance is the felon-in-chief’s preferred successor:
https://nypost.com/2026/04/10/us-news/roger-stone-convinced-trump-not-to-fire-tulsi-gabbard/
That’s a whole lot of liars, but thar doesn’t mean they’re lying.
Yes, fulsome.
Fulsome
/foo͝l′səm/
adjective
Excessively flattering or insincerely earnest. synonym: unctuous.
Similar: unctuous
Disgusting or offensive.
Copious or abundant.
The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, 5th Edition