Years (or months) from now, if the economy goes into recession, remember this is the team that brought you that outcome.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Browbeating Trump’s Bete Noire into Submission via Trade War
Trump can’t even do that right.
GDPNow Assuming No Import Effects: Still Close to Stall Speed
Assume no revision to GDP prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level of GDP?
EPU on the Rise
EPU through 3/3/2025:
Soybeans (Again!)
Deja vu all over again – China retaliates, and again soybeans are on the list.
Recession (Betting) Odds Rising
From Kalshi, 10am CT:
Spot the “Events” in this Event Study
Dow Jones:
Trade War w/Canada, Mexico
The Inversion Continues
While VIX is elevated:
Nowcasted Consumption Falls to Stall Speed
A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero.