Overtaken By Events:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
EJ Antoni — Who Believes We’ve Been in Recession since 2022 — Worries that Democrats Will Misunderstand GDPNow to Claim We’re Entering a Recession in 2025Q1
Remember when GDP contracted under Biden but Dems said that wasn’t a recession? What will they say now that Trump is president? ATL Fed’s GDP nowcast for Q1 just plunged from 2.3% to -1.5% as everyone begins to realize our “growth” has just been debt-fueled gov’t spending
CROWE: “Will tariffs make Wisconsin rich?”
New working paper from Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy, by Junjie Guo and Ananth Seshadri. Although they don’t give a one word answer, I’m pretty sure it would be “no”.
Uncertainty: Does It Matter?
From Ferrara and Guerin (J. App. Econometrics, 2018), using a mixed frequency approach in VARs.
Deepening Yield Curve Inversion at 6 months to 2 year Maturities since Inauguration Day
From 1/21/2025 to 3/10/2025, the 2 year constant maturity yield fell by 40 bps. Continue reading
Why Shouldn’t the Stock Market Be Crashing?
Uncertainty from text analysis, and from consumer surveys:
GDPNow and Other Predictions
Accounting for gold, GDPNow for Q1 is at +0.4%.
“King Dollar” by Paul Blustein
In my IRL mailbox! Looking forward to reading… Continue reading
Economic Policy Uncertainty through 3/6/2025: Through the Roof!
The 7 day centered moving average is only exceeded by the April 2 and April 23 observations (the latter is “bleach”, if you are wondering).
Business Cycle Indicators plus Employment for February
CES based employment indicators (NFP, private NFP, hourly wages, hours) essentially at consensus. Here’s the roundup of key NBER indicators (of which employment and personal income ex-transfers are central).