PCE hits consensus. Instantaneous (weighted average of m/m inflation, with more recent observations having higher impact) headline and core down.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Business Cycle Indicators, end-June
Nominal PCE slightly below consensus (+0.2% vs. +0.3%). Here are some key business cycle indicators followed by NBER BCDC, with real personal income ex-transfers flat (along with real consumption)
“Food costs doubled, tripled, quadrupled…”
That’s Mr. Trump on inflation. Here’s the data:
“44th International Symposium On Forecasting | Dijon, France”
International Institute of Forecasters’ Conference starting on June 30th. I wish I had the chance to attend again this year.
Northern Hemisphere Land Temperatures, June-May, through 2024
From NOAA:
Deceleration: Three Measures of Output and a Measure of Aggregate Demand
With Q1 3rd release, along with GDP+, we have the following picture (in levels):
What Do Joseph Stiglitz, George A. Akerlof, Sir Angus Deaton, Claudia Goldin, Sir Oliver Hart, Eric S. Maskin, Daniel L. McFadden , Paul R. Milgrom, Roger B. Myerson, Edmund S. Phelps, Paul M. Romer, Alvin E. Roth, William F. Sharpe, Robert J. Shiller, Christopher A. Sims, and Robert B. Wilson Have In Common?
(1) They all have been awarded The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, and (2) they oppose Mr. Trump’s economic agenda.
Truly Tariffying: A (Economic Policy) House of Horrors
I was taking a rare vacation trip (most travel is work related for me), when my wife and I decided to enter the haunted house at Tivoli for kicks (last visit, it’d been closed to renovate the wax museum to something new). Well, it wasn’t frightening at all – but that got me thinking: What would be frightening? Here’s my answer:
“Economic Policy in a second Trump term”
Opinion: “An (Almost) Inverted Yield Curve Is Worrying China”
S. Ren in Bloomberg: “It’s getting flatter, prompting worries over an ‘asset famine’ and a prolonged recession.”
Wisconsin Employment Situation: May
The DWD released the May preliminary employment numbers on Thursday (h/t James):