That’s the title I gave for an essay published in the Nikkei today:
[Link to article]
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
“The Michigan Index indicates that we are already in an oil shock recession”
That’s a comment by a reader. The index is indeed correlated with recessions, but not necessarily with oil shock recessions only, nor is it always an indicator of a recession.
Guest Contribution: “No, the US Is Not In Recession”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version of this commentary appeared in Barron’s magazine, June 8, 2022. For a video interview, see BNN/Bloomberg, June 8.
Business Cycle Indicators, June 9
With the release of employment last Friday, we have the following picture of series followed by the NBER BCDC.
Sixty Years of the “Misery Index”
The simple sum of the unemployment rate and the (y/y) inflation rate:
Real Hourly Earnings in May
unadjusted for composition:
Some More Correlations on Mass Shootings in the United States
Estimating through end-May, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
Business Cycle Indicators at June’s Start
With the release of monthly GDP today, and income and consumption earlier, we have the following picture of series followed by the NBER BCDC.
Guest Contribution: “The Price of Property Rights: Institutions, Finance, and Economic Growth”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Ron Alquist (Senior Economist and Policy Advisor, Financial Stability Oversight Council), Benjamin R. Chabot (Knowledge Leader, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago), and Ram Yamarthy (Senior Economist, Office of Financial Research, U.S. Treasury). The views expressed in this blog post are the authors’ own and do not necessarily represent those of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Federal Reserve System, the Office of Financial Research, or the U.S. Department of Treasury.
Composition of Central Bank Holdings, 1965-2021
Estimated and reported: