From the World Bank report:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Correlations
Suppose the historical correlations between the 7 day moving average of covid deaths and hospitalizations and ICU beds holds. What does that imply for future trends in covid related deaths?
Taking the Value of a Statistical Life Calculation Seriously
It’s often said that economists know the price of everything and the value of nothing. Well, here goes anyway.
US Exports in the Wake of the Trade War
Compiling graphs for a trade course, and lo what did I see:
More on the “omicron dud”
Following up on “omicron is a dud” – From CDC, forecasted deaths of 10 January 2022:
“omicron is a dud”
That’s one assessment of the impact on markets. Certainly in terms of public health impacts, that’s not true.
US Inflation and Chinese Imports
One reason why inflation exceeded my estimates from earlier this year is the price of imports. Since 2020M02, goods import prices from China have risen 5.3%, after declining 5.8% over the preceding six years. The dollar depreciated by 9.4% over the same period, implying a exchange rate pass-through coefficient of 0.56.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January 2022
Industrial production comes in below consensus (-0.1% vs. Bloomberg +0.3% m/m). Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.
Market Responses to the CPI: Inflation Breakeven, Term Spread, Dollar
The CPI surprised on the upside by 10 bps relative to Bloomberg consensus (also higher vs. Cleveland Fed nowcasts). How did financial markets respond?
CPI Inflation in December
Beware the headlines — month-on-month inflation is (again) down, even if up year-on-year. Trimmed and chained CPI price inflation are also down, while sticky price inflation was flat. Headline and core CPI did surprise on the upside though (m/m, 10 bps over Bloomberg consensus).