Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared on June 22nd in Project Syndicate.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “Time-varying Models for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Adjunct Professor of Economics, University Paris Nanterre, France). The views expressed here are those solely of the author.
Double Time to Trade War?
From Politico’s Morning Trade:
RAPID PACE OF STEEL PROBE DISCONCERTING: Some Democratic lawmakers could soon press the administration over concerns that a potential Trump decision to restrict steel imports to protect national security could be challenged at the World Trade Organization if the Commerce Department does not provide a convincing basis for any action, Morning Trade has learned.
Pangloss in Wisconsin
In search of a “supply side success” after the end of the Kansas experiment, conservative observers turn to Wisconsin. The Manhattan Institute’s Mr. Riedl declares victory:
Wisconsin’s job growth over the past six years has been extraordinarily strong.
When last we met Mr. Riedl, he was explaining why fiscal policy could have no impact on GDP because, well, because. That does not augur well for his abilities an economic analysis, and indeed we can easily poke holes into the argument that Wisconsin’s doing just great!
“The Transmission of Macroprudential and Monetary Policies across Borders”
That’s the title of a one day conference at the margins of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, organized by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) and the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the IMF, aimed at featuring research on the international transmission of macroprudential and monetary policies and to discuss policy implications from this research.
The Pound on 8 June 2017
The UK voters look set to provide another surprise. The pound has moved substantially as exit poll data has come out.
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Employment Situation: Maybe a Little Softer than I Thought
A couple of days ago, I noted that most indicators showed continued growth. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages figures released today indicate a slightly softer employment situation at end of 2016 than is represented by the establishment series.
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The Kansas Experiment Ends
From The Wichita Eagle:
Lawmakers rolled back Gov. Sam Brownback’s signature tax policy over his objections Tuesday night, forcing into law tax increases to fix a budget shortfall and provide more money for schools.
Implications of the President’s Muslim Travel Ban
Since the President has acknowledged that the intent of his restrictions on entry of individuals from certain countries is actually a “travel ban”, it is of interest to assess the impact on foreign travel to the United States, and consequent impact on the US economy.
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Slowdown? Recession Indicators as of June 5, 2017
As the prospects for a fiscal stimulus fade, and the prospects for protectionist backlash remain, some observers ponder whether growth will stall before it gets started.
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