As the Administration contemplates deep cuts to scientific data acquisition, and deleting or restricting public access data sets, I thought it useful to post the global temperature anomaly data, accessible as of today, before it disappears.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Do You Feel Lucky?
The Administration rolled out a new trade strategy yesterday (The President’s 2017 Trade Policy Agenda, part of this document). Like many things the Administration has put forward, it is heavy on rhetoric, light on policy specifics. That being said, if the Administration pursues a trade agenda that invites trade retaliation, while implementation of stimulative macro policies (e.g., infrastructure investment, tax cuts) are delayed, then we may very well get an economic slowdown before a boom.
Personally, I Prefer the Term “Asian”
Not an economics post, but I cannot resist.
What If China Gave Mr. Trump What He Says He Wants: A Stronger Chinese Currency
Well, given the trilemma, and limits to capital control efficacy, it’ll mean more PBoC decumulation of US Treasurys, and holding all else constant, higher long term interest rates.
Guest Contribution: “Identifying State-Level Recessions”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jason Brown, Senior Economist and Regional Executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This post is based on the article by the same title. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.
Guest Contribution: “On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Geert Bekaert (Columbia University) and Arnaud Mehl (ECB). This post is based on the paper by of the same title. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the Eurosystem.
The Media Fails to Report the Sun Rose Today
President Trump is upset that the media missed this economic event:
“The media has not reported that the National Debt in my first month went down by $12 billion vs a $200 billion increase in Obama first mo”
Guest Contribution: “Let the US Fiduciary Rule Go Ahead”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared on February 21st in Project Syndicate.
The “Unsustainable” US-Mexico Trade Deficit
From CNNMoney, President Trump:
“With Mexico we have $70 billion in deficit. … It’s unsustainable. … We’re not going to let it happen, can’t let it happen,”
Taking the President at His Word: Deportation As a “Military Operation”
Full quote:
“We’re getting really bad dudes out of this country, and at a rate that nobody’s ever seen before,” Trump said Thursday. “And they’re the bad ones. And it’s a military operation.”