As noted earlier, in the aftermath of the 2012 election, the Republican Party dedicated itself to reaching out to Asian Americans (in addition to other ethnic groups). Thus far, the progress appears to be limited.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Elections and Asset Prices
One interesting correlation, as pointed out by Clines in the NYT, is between the Mexican peso’s value against the USD and the probability that Donald J. Trump will win, as judged by the markets.
No Kidding: “Hard Brexit has haunted the sterling.”
Ron Alquist brings my attention to this ongoing story:
Source: Bloomberg 10/6/2016.
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2016
Today, the IMF released forecasts of substantially downwardly revised growth estimates for the US. UK 2017 growth revised down 1.1 percentage points relative to pre-Brexit forecast (World Economic Outlook).
On Reading the Trump Economic Plan
At the beginning of the week (9/27), Bruce Bartlett forwarded me a link to a remarkable document, entitled “Scoring the Trump Economic Plan: Trade, Regulatory, & Energy Policy Impacts” (strangely, dated 9/29), coauthored by Peter Navarro* and Wilbur Ross. I’m way behind the curve, and there have been numerous examinations of the document, so I will not discuss the entire paper. Rather I’ll focus on the following specific question: would renegotiating trade agreements and slapping tariffs on China, conjoined with the Trump fiscal policy, induce a drastic change employment and trade flows? The short answer — yes, but probably in a direction opposite of that posited by the authors.
Confirmed: Kansas as Leader of the Pack
The Philadelphia Fed today released leading indices for the 50 states and the US. Kansas records the largest projected six-month decline in activity (after recording the largest in the Nation three month decline through August).
Source: Philadelphia Fed leading index page.
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US Employment Implications of Preferential Trade Arrangements
In the debate on Monday, Donald J. Trump comments on Nafta’s impact:
You go to New England. You go to Ohio, Pennsylvania. You go anywhere you want, Secretary Clinton, and you will see devastation where manufacturing is down thirty, forty, sometimes fifty percent — NAFTA is the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere but certainly ever signed in this country.
Donald J. Trump on Fed Policy
From the Monday debate:
Guest Contribution: “A Radical Solution to the Fundamental Flaws in US Politics: Vote!”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Kansas Drought Free – Economic Activity Declines
No more drought in Kansas. And yet, according to the Philadelphia Fed, Kansas again stands out in economic decline:
Source: Philadelphia Fed.