Economic Effects and Implications for the Global Trading System
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Peter A. Petri (Brandeis University) and Michael G. Plummer (The Johns Hopkins University, SAIS).
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Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “Economic Prospects of Ukraine”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest post written by Yuriy Gorodnichenko (UC Berkeley).
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Russian ForEx Reserves and Balance of Payments Vulnerabilities
Russian foreign exchange reserves, while large, are declining. Since reserve holdings (or lack thereof) are one of the best predictors of balance of payments/currency crises, it’s worth taking a look at their trajectory. (See Frankel and Saravelos, 2012 for a recent example)
Beware of Unit Roots in Scatterplots
Is there a linear relationship over time between the share of workers affected by the minimum wage and the ratio of the minimum wage and average compensation?
Demographic Incidence of a Wisconsin Minimum Wage Increase
In Wisconsin, the main beneficiaries of a minimum wage increase to $10.10 would be individuals aged 20-29 years, females, and (proportionately), blacks and hispanics. Hence, opposition to a minimum wage increase implies a worse outcome for those groups in the aggregate relative to an elevated-minimum-wage scenario.
Guest Contribution: “Sovereign to Sovereign Capital Flows”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution authored by Laura Alfaro (Harvard), Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (U. Maryland) and Vadym Volosovych (Erasmus University Rotterdam). This post is based on “Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, and Global Imbalances” (2014).
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin, and More
The Philadelphia Fed has just released coincident indicators for state economies. No turnaround for Wisconsin — it continues to lag Minnesota and the Nation.
Will Wisconsin Private Employment Be Revised Down?
Preliminary figures from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which Governor Walker has previously touted as more accurate than the establishment survey [1], indicate a substantial downward revision in Wisconsin private employment.
GDP Prospects
Estimates of monthly GDP indicate a rebound. So too do forecasts.
Guest Contribution: “Forex reserves: why following China won’t work for India”
Today we are fortunate to have a contribution by Joshua Aizenman, Dockson Chair in Economics and International Relations at the University of Southern California. This post was originally published at East Asia Forum.