US, Euro area, and UK GDP Trajectories Compared, and the Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Risk Appetite, Interest Rate Parity, Integration, Crises, Currency Wars, and theTrilemma
These are the topics covered in West Coast Workshop on International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, October 11th, organized by Michael Hutchison (UCSC) and Helen Popper (SCU).
CNY on the Rise
The preliminary results from the BIS triennial survey for 2013 are out. There are a lot of interesting results, but one I want to flag is that the Chinese yuan is increasingly used in forex transactions.
Observations on the Labor Market
One of these is not like the others – local government employment stabilizes, but state does not – structural unemployment decreases – Obamacare does not cause the rise in part time employment
A Tale of Two Fiscal Policies, Continued
In a previous post, I compared economic outcomes in two states that implemented contrasting fiscal policies: California, which surged ahead while raising taxes and cutting spending, and Wisconsin, which lagged far behind as it slashed spending on education, and cut taxes. Latest estimates of current economic activity, and forecasted economic activity six months out, indicate continued lagging performance for Wisconsin.
Quantitative and Credit Easing vs. Forward Guidance
Domestic Impacts and Cross-Border Impacts Contrasted
Why Do Economists Blog (Policy Edition) (II)?
Six years ago, I asked this question, and noted that it was primarily economists who had served a stint in government. Still, it was a pretty rarified group; now it’s less so.
2013Q2: Faster GDP Growth
Messages from the external and government sectors
David Brooks on What Works and What Doesn’t
Or, it would be a better world if people who pronounced on policy measures knew something about policy efficacy
Two Approaches to Fiscal Policy
Consider the following graph, with both series (coincident series for economic activity) normalized to 2011M01=0.