From BEA state level data released on Friday. GDP grows 4.2% SAAR, Chained CPI deflated wages and salaries by 1.9%; Year-on-Year, 1.5% and 3.0% respectively. While NFP only grew 0.9% q/q AR, the Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark measure of NFP grew 1.5%.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Arrogance of Ignorance
Reader JohnH berates mainstream economists for ignoring the distribution of income while focusing on the average, despite multiple attempts to point out that I’ve talked about median incomes and wages a lot. To wit:
GDP, GDO, GDP+ and Final Sales
With Q4 3rd release, we have an estimate of GDO, in addition to GDP.
Business Cycle Indicators: February Personal Income, Consumption, and January Mfg/Trade Industry Sales
Plus 3rd release of 2023Q3 GDP.
Guest Contribution: “Adjusting the Current Account”
Today we are fortunate to have as a guest contributor Joseph Joyce, Professor of Economics and M. Margaret Ball Professor of International Relations at Wellesley College.
Wisconsin Current Economic Conditions
Coincident index suggests acceleration.
Guest Contribution: “The Historical Puzzle of US Economic Performance under Democrats vs. Republicans”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. I thank Sohaib Nasim for research assistance and Emil Kaneti for catching a mistake in an earlier draft.
Quotes that Should be Remembered Forever
From March 2020:
February 2024 Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast
Released today. Continued growth in employment, GDP, based on national trends and outlook from SPGMI (report here).
Measuring Fed Inflation Credibility
What do households (not economists) think inflation will be in three years? I use the deviation of forecast from target as a proxy measure for credibility regarding inflation.