A bump up except instantaneous core.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
IMF October WEO
From intro to the WEO:
Claudia Goldin Awarded Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2023 to
Claudia Goldin
Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
“for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes”
She uncovered key drivers of gender differences in the labour market
Manufacturing on the Rise?
Here’s a picture of manufacturing activity: employment, hours worked, production, and new orders:
The Employment Situation Release and Purported BLS “Upward Goalseeking”
When I want to know what the crazies are thinking, I go to zerohedge. On the BLS employment situation release, I saw zerohedge [1] asserting that the 336K number was the outcome of “upward goalseeking”. “Goalseeking”, I had to look up, “…is the process of calculating in reverse to find the right method when only the desired outcome is known.”
Real Ten Year Treasury Yields: Back to the ‘Aughts?
In a way, yes — that is in terms of levels. In terms of pace of change, no.
The Employment Situation Release and Business Cycle Indicators
With September employment reported today (336K vs. 170K Bloomberg consensus), we have the following picture of the economy.
The Boom in Manufacturing Structures Investment
Data from 2023Q2 post-revision, and Census construction numbers:
Quantity Theory and (Broad) Money Demand in Normal and Abnormal Times
Business Cycle Indicators at October’s Start
With monthly GDP reported today, we have the following picture of the economy.