I talked about trade and the economy with AEI’s James Glassman on Minnesota Public Radio’s Midmorning show a week ago. The link to the audio file is here
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
The Return of Knowledge-Based Policy-Making?
NOAA admits a human role in global warming. OMB drops — based on a critical National Academies of Sciences report –plans to implement a flawed risk-assessment procedure. Are these harbingers of change?
The Wartime Economy and Tax Policy
So Shinseki was right.
International Economics at the AEA/ASSA: Selected Items
The Allied Social Sciences Association (incorporating the AEA, the Econometric Society, the International Economics and Finance Society and many other groups) meetings took place in Chicago this last weekend. I wasn’t able to go to that many sessions, but I did attend a few related to international issues.
President Bush on Economics
On Wednesday, the President writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed (sub. req.):
Low Real Rates Disappear…but the Deficit Remains
I’ve been looking at real long term interest rates as proxied by nominal rates minus expected inflation. The problem of course is finding measures of expected inflation. Subtracting off the ex post rate (appropriate under the rational expectations hypothesis) can lead to misleading inferences — and is not practicable for current measures of long term rates. Using ten year constant maturity rates and the Society of Professional Forecasters 10 year horizon CPI inflation rates yields the following picture.
Is Decoupling Possible?
The dream rebalancing scenario, in which adjustment of the world’s imbalances occurs without fiscal responsibility returning to America, relies upon “decoupling”.
Janet Yellen on Inequality in America
A survey of trends in income inequality, and some thoughts on what policy responses might be appropriate.
Surge or no surge? minimal “burn rates” for operations in Iraq
Where are expenditure rates now? Where might they go?
The RMB: Where’s it been and where’s it going?
Faster appreciation against the dollar. And apparently against a broad basket of currencies.