From CBO today:
Category Archives: budget
“Fiscal Recovery Act of 2023”: Macro Impact, Micro Evidence
Federal Debt to GDP – When Did It Jump? Where Is It Going Now?
Regardless of gross or net, at par or market value, as a ratio to GDP or potential GDP, the answer is pretty obvious.
CDS Spreads on One Year Treasurys
Market anxiety rose three weeks ago, and remains elevated.
So You Want to Slow Down Debt Accumulation …(while exempting Social Security and Tax Increases)
Center for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has an app for you to try it out, here.
The Administration’s GDP Forecast
The FY 24 Budget was released today. Because the forecast was locked down in late November, and the macro outlook has changed so much, the administration felt compelled to add an “Update on the Administration’s Economic Assumptions”. Here’s the forecast (based on Table S-9 in the Budget).
“Biden Trump Grows National Debt by 11% in Two Years”
This is a corrected title of a mendacious (and typically statistically incompetent) article by Craig Eyermann in an Independent Institute blogpost (previously highlighted as Ironman of PoliticalCalculations). He writes:
Debt Held by the Public as Share of GDP
From Treasury, and CBO.
The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance and Federal Debt Held by the Public: Time Series
As a share of potential GDP (CBO May 2022 estimates):
Reserve Currency Status Is No Vaccination against Recklessness – UK Edition
…although it helps.
I never thought an advanced economy government could pursue stupider policies than that implemented under the Trump administration. Consider me corrected on this point – case in point, the United Kingdom in 2022.