So far, the UK economy is plugging along, according to the OECD Weekly Tracker (through 9/17). But (understatement of the year), challenges have arisen.
Category Archives: budget
CBO Scored Inflation Reduction Act: 10 Year Deficit Reduction of $101.5 bn
More on Market Indicators pre- & post-Manchin
Following up on the previous post on expectations responses from the market to Manchin, Just putting together all the pieces of betting odds on the size of the reconciliation package, and the impact on implied expected inflation, real rates, and future economic activity. I plot on a 7 day frequency so as to include the odds from PredictIt, which do not stay constant over the weekend.
A “Fiscal Cliff Scenario” – A Symposium of Views in The International Economy
Macro Implications of BBB and IIJA Passage
We are still in the process of determining what’s in the Build Back Better (BBB) bill, but it approximates what is currently discussed, it in conjunction with the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) will not likely lead to much pressure in credit markets and upward pressure in prices, given it is largely paid for. Here (while we wait for the CBO) are Moody’s Analytics projections (as of 11/4).
Republicans Aim to Raise Economic Policy Uncertainty… Again
Debt Dynamics, and the Real Interest Rate
Debt-to-GDP dynamics are described by this expression.
Real Borrowing Costs for the US Treasury: May 2021
As of May 2021, the nominal 10 year Treasury rate is 1.6%. The real rate is -0.9%.
Guest Contribution: “Republicans oppose deficits only when Democrats hold the White House”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
“Will Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus overheat the American economy?”
That’s the title of a new article in the Economist:
There are three main reasons to suspect overheating might be on the cards: emerging evidence that the downturn may prove temporary; generous stimulus; and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy strategy.