The House Budget, as expected, is not a serious document — see the tables. I’ll skip the fantasy spending cuts, and focus on revenue plans. From CRFB:
Category Archives: budget
Costing Trump Tax Priorities
From CRFB, $5-$11.2 trn over 10 years:
(Would’a Been) Biggest Tax Increase Ever!
In nominal dollar terms. Thanks, Trump.
Risks, 2025
Top of my list:
“Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates”
From CBO, a working paper by Andre R. Neveu (FDIC) and Jeffrey Schafer (CBO) on the debt sensitivity of the interest rate (DSIR):
Guest Contribution: “Can Musk find $2 trillion in spending cuts for Trump?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate and the Guardian.
Debt-to-GDP under Trump 1.0
A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint.
Farmers of the Nation, Unite! You Have Nothing to Lose but Possible Retaliation against Soybeans and Corn
From the National Corn Growers Association:
U.S. soybeans and corn are prime targets for tariffs. As the top two export commodities for our country, together they account for about one-fourth of total U.S. agricultural export value. As such, a repeated tariff-based approach to addressing trade with China places a target on both U.S. soybeans and corn. Farmers and rural economies pay the price as a result.
Federal Interest Payments: To the Public vs. To the Rest-of-Federal Government
Ode to an EJ Antoni graph (apologies to Keats). Total interest payments have risen substantially, and this shows up in a scary picture:
If You *Really* Are Worried about Federal Debt Accumulation…
Consider this graph (based on Penn Wharton Budget Model scoring, from the Economist):