Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
So be prepared. From Feng, Han, and Li (2023):
Mark Sobel at OMFIF discusses the likelihood of an new Plaza Accord to depreciate the dollar. Given one would need Euro area and Chinese agreement, the assessed likelihood is low
Consider the ruble/yuan exchange rate.
This Thursday 4:30 CT at UW:
PBoC and financial regulators act, but even with fiscal measures underway, are unlikely to drastically change the path of the economy.
Brad Setser has been diligently cross-checking the external accounts of China. For purposes of thinking about how policymakers are trying to snatch aggregate demand across borders, the trade balance is key.
From Torsten Slok/Apollo today, following up on the post yesterday:
China q/q and y/y GDP below consensus, +0.7% vs +1.1% cons, +4.7% vs. +5.1% cons (Bloomberg).
S. Ren in Bloomberg: “It’s getting flatter, prompting worries over an ‘asset famine’ and a prolonged recession.”