Brad Setser has been diligently cross-checking the external accounts of China. For purposes of thinking about how policymakers are trying to snatch aggregate demand across borders, the trade balance is key.
Category Archives: China
China Economic Sentiment
From Torsten Slok/Apollo today, following up on the post yesterday:
China GDP News, and a View on Chinese Medicine
China q/q and y/y GDP below consensus, +0.7% vs +1.1% cons, +4.7% vs. +5.1% cons (Bloomberg).
Opinion: “An (Almost) Inverted Yield Curve Is Worrying China”
S. Ren in Bloomberg: “It’s getting flatter, prompting worries over an ‘asset famine’ and a prolonged recession.”
Some Recent Statistics on the Internationalization of the Yuan
COFER data through December 2023:
PLAN Exercises around Taiwan
From NYT:
CNY Overtakes CAD in FX Trading, CB Reserve Holdings in 2022
Talking about the dollar as an reserve currency next week [2], and noticed these interesting trends.
Hi Ho, Hi Ho, It’s Off to FX War We Go!
I’ve only now gotten around to writing about this Trump policy proposal: “Trump trade advisers plot dollar devaluation” . I was befuddled by how they Trump brain trust was going to effectively force the weakening of the dollar: sterilized intervention, dropping interest rates in the US, or forcing foreign countries to re-peg their currencies at stronger values. They all seem to be problematic.
Brad Setser: “Power and Financial Interdependence”
Chinese GDP in Q1
Official is 5.3% y/y (consensus 4.8%), vs BOFIT 4.3%.