From ASSA, take a look at the first paper’s abstract:
United States-China Trade Relationships
Hosted By: CHINESE ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION IN NORTH AMERICA
- Chair: Heiwai Tang, Johns Hopkins University and Hong Kong University
Category Archives: China
Dispatches from the Trade Wars
Net impact on employment from Trump’s trade war and associated retaliation:
Source: Flaaen and Pierce, 2019.
Trade Policy Uncertainty: US, China
Source: policyuncertainty.com
Victory at Sea: Soybeans heading to China (from Brazil)
Reuters: After trade talks in U.S., China ramps up Brazilian soy purchases:
Nearest month futures are about a dollar lower (at $9.34/bushel) than the nearest month futures on the day when Trump announced Section 301 action against China.
Cooperation with “Red China”
Reader Ed Hanson remarks:
Red China has been protectionist since its beginning. [A]nd certainly has since it joined the worldwide trade in the 80’s or so. Did protectionism make it weaker?
In light of Mr. Trump’s remarks today:
“China should start an investigation into the Bidens, because what happened in China is just about as bad as what happened with Ukraine.”
What do people like Ed Hanson (I’m guessing old, and still worrying about Commies, but thinking Russians are ok) think Mr. Trump should bargain away in terms of trade sanctions on “Red China” in order to get that investigation?
Soybeans: Victory Is Around the Corner
On July 9, 2018, about 14 months ago, reader CoRev wrote:
Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices.
Hah, hah, hah, hah! Time to look at prices relative to March 23, 2018, when Trump announced imposing Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods…
The Politics and Policy of China
A Tenure-track Position at UW Madison
Winning! August Soybean Edition
From Bloomberg today:
As confusion about the possibility of a trade deal between Washington and Beijing reigns, Chinese soybean buyers are taking no chances and are turning to U.S. rivals in South America to secure supplies for next year.
Graph of Brazil premium speaks volumes:
So despite Trump’s assertion the Chinese “want deal”, what some people characterize as a price “blip” continues.
Market Assessment of Prospects for Resolution of the US-China Trade Dispute by September 2020
Going from August 22rd to 23rd, front month futures dropped 12-6; the August 2020 futures price (which are an unbiased predictor of one year ahead spot prices) was down 8-4. Hence, farmers should prepare for a long, tough, period of self-inflicted (by the administration) damage.
A History of Trade Policy Retaliation: Soybeans Edition
As the date of the resolution of the US-China trade dispute drifts further and further — perhaps past the 2020 elections according to Mr. Trump — it behooves us to look at what soybean futures contracts for September 2019 indicated as of Trump’s announcement of Section 301 action against China ($10.30 bushel on 3/22/2018) vs $8.67 today (Sept. 2019 is the front month future for soybeans now).