Stats reported yesterday:
Category Archives: China
China Growth Hits Consensus
RMB Reserves & Turnover, China GDP Share of World GDP, Avg. Trade Share
Here’s a picture of the RMB’s role as a reserve and vehicle currency, from an ongoing project with Jeffrey Frankel and Hiro Ito, where we examine the determinants of individual central bank reserve holdings.
Non-Inflation Release Items: Oil, Urals, Gas Prices, Inflation Expectations, China Deflation
Oil prices, Urals vs. Brent, gasoline prices weekly thru yesterday, one-year-ahead y/y inflation forecasts, and China in deflation (again).
Alternative Estimates of Chinese Q3 GDP Growth
The Fernald-Hsu-Spiegel China Cyclical Activity Tracker (CCAT) indicates Q3 growth 0.26 standard deviation below trend.
Requiem for a Technocrat
From NY Times, on the passing of former premier Li Keqiang:
Guest Contribution: “China’s Great Leap Backward”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. The author thanks Sohaib Nasim for research assistance.
More on China Q3 GDP
BOFIT calculations (based on Kerola (2019)) indicate a slower pace of growth than officially reported. Year-on-Year, the simple average of alternative calculations is less than 4%, compared to the 4.9% officially reported (which is at the top of the range of growth rates from the alternative calculations).
Guest Contribution: “Exchange Rate Elasticities and Product Sophistication”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
China GDP Growth in Q3
Q/Q was 1.3% vs. consensus 1%.