Wells Fargo Economics analyses the extent of the current slowdown, and contemplates the impact on regional economies. Here’s the heat map:
Category Archives: China
Motivations for Economic Policies in Western China
I’m not a China expert, but 20 years ago, I had the opportunity to hear the Chinese explanation for their planned policies in Western China (Xibu Dakaifa), translated in English journalistic accounts as “Develop the West” (I was the international finance economist on the Council of Economic Advisers at the time, and the Chinese counterpart, the State Development Planning Commission, was coming to Washington to meet with us; I was tasked with overseeing elements of the meeting).
Slowdown in China
Goldman Sachs Current Activity Indicator (CAI) dips into negative territory in August. Since the CAI is scaled to GDP annualized growth, this implies negative GDP growth in that month.
China and the Initial Response to Covid-19
A must watch documentary, even if you know the basic history: Frontline‘s “China’s Covid Secrets“.
China Growth in Question
The FT article “China Covid outbreak linked to Delta variant weighs on economy” (Hale, White, Shepherd) makes some grim reading, with several other articles having a similar take, citing Goldman Sachs. I was gripped by a sense of déjà vu. In my first lecture in January 2020 I cited the uncertainties for the trade/macro outlook given events in Wuhan. From FT:
US-China Economic Relations on Talking Trade
I had the pleasure of speaking with UW’s Ian Coxhead and Sandi Siegel, President of MITA and of ME Dey, at Talking Trade last week about trade, direct investment and competition in technology production.
Is Economic Policy Uncertainty Really This Low in Hong Kong?
The Economic Policy Uncertainty index, calculated using the Baker, Bloom and Davis methodology:
Review of Subacchi, “The People’s Money: How China Is Building a Global Currency”
For those interested in the RMB, here’s my book review:
Hendrix and Noland, “Assessing Potential Economic Policy Responses to Genocide in Xinjiang”
From Cullen Hendrix and Marcus Noland at Peterson Institute for International Economics, “Assessing Potential Economic Policy Responses to Genocide in Xinjiang” – Economic Policy Responses:
Trade Sanctions on Use of Forced Labor in China
From Reuters: