BLS Private nonfarm payrolls up 444K vs. ADP down 301K vs. +150K consensus (Bloomberg), with big revisions to previous months. A lesson in not over-reading the ADP series (see employment situation release).
Category Archives: employment
ADP Downside Surprise
Private nonfarm payrolls down 301K vs. +207K consensus (Bloomberg). Still, don’t over-read.
Wisconsin Employment in December
DWD released December figures today.
Sectoral Divergences and Real Wages
With yesterday’s employment situation release (discussed in this post), we have data employment by sectors, as well as corresponding average hourly earnings. We don’t have the CPI for that month, but using nowcasts, we can guess what is likely to be happening to real wages.
December Employment
Yesterday’s nonfarm payroll employment growth (here) surprised (significantly) on the downside.
ADP Private Employment Upside Surprise
ADP released its December employment estimate of 807K vs Bloomberg consensus of 400K.
Wisconsin Employment in October
DWD released October figures today.
Are Real Wages Being Eroded by Inflation?
The answer depends on the deflator.
Do We Really Not Know What Happened to NFP Given Likely Revisions?
BLS documents the extent of revisions going from 1st to 2nd, 1st to 3rd, 2nd to 3rd releases of NFP, here. Using the 2019 mean absolute revisions, the range of plausible values for employment growth (not percent growth) is shown below.
Employment in October: Faster Growth
The employment release for October provided lots of interesting facts. First employment growth is faster than anticipated, and second was faster in September than originally estimated.