With yesterday’s employment situation release (discussed in this post), we have data employment by sectors, as well as corresponding average hourly earnings. We don’t have the CPI for that month, but using nowcasts, we can guess what is likely to be happening to real wages.
Category Archives: employment
December Employment
Yesterday’s nonfarm payroll employment growth (here) surprised (significantly) on the downside.
ADP Private Employment Upside Surprise
ADP released its December employment estimate of 807K vs Bloomberg consensus of 400K.
Wisconsin Employment in October
DWD released October figures today.
Are Real Wages Being Eroded by Inflation?
The answer depends on the deflator.
Do We Really Not Know What Happened to NFP Given Likely Revisions?
BLS documents the extent of revisions going from 1st to 2nd, 1st to 3rd, 2nd to 3rd releases of NFP, here. Using the 2019 mean absolute revisions, the range of plausible values for employment growth (not percent growth) is shown below.
Employment in October: Faster Growth
The employment release for October provided lots of interesting facts. First employment growth is faster than anticipated, and second was faster in September than originally estimated.
Guest Contribution: “How far to full employment? – An update”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Wisconsin Employment in September
DWD released September figures today. Nonfarm payroll employment trends sideways, as manufacturing and high contact services employment like leisure and hospitality services resume a divergence.
A Graphical Primer to Interpreting the Sources of Inflation in the Covid Era
For students in Econ 435, using model originally in Robert Hall and John Taylor, “Macroeconomics”, and shown in the ADAS handout.