The Wisconsin Department of Revenue has released its Economic Outlook, dated November 22nd. The forecasts incorporate assumptions that include: “November IHS Markit forecast shows a slowing down of the economic recovery in the last quarter of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Several high-frequency indicators point to a further deceleration in October, but the forecast does not include a double dip. ….Wisconsin personal income growth accelerated in 2020 pushed by the federal stimulus funds, but it’s expected to decline 1.9% in 2021, as the fiscal stimulus fades. …The current forecast assumes no further fiscal stimulus and that a vaccine will be available by mid2021.”
Category Archives: employment
Wisconsin Employment Down
From Wisconsin DWD this afternoon:
[T]he data shows that Wisconsin total non-farm jobs decreased by 14,700 and 2,700 private-sector jobs in the month of October.
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate for October was 5.7 percent, up from 5.4 percent in September.
Business Cycle Indicators, November 6
Meanwhile, back in the real economy, the employment decelerates. Here’s the current outlook, using some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Employment in October: Further Deceleration
The employment release confirms a deceleration in employment, presaging deceleration in the other macro indicators. Government employment is down, and not solely because of the winding-down of the decennial Census. Rather, state and local government employment is declining, and is now 6.8% below NBER peak level.
Employment Growth Continues to Decelerate: the ADP Report
ADP reports private nonfarm payroll employment today, +365K, below +650K consensus…:
Labor Force Developments
Nationwide, labor force down 2.7% from February, and down 2.4% from year ago.
Business Cycle Indicators, 16 October
With the release of industrial production figures today, the deceleration in economic activity continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Wisconsin Employment in September
Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with US, but — like at the national level — at a decelerating pace.
Business Cycle Indicators as of October 2
Nonfarm payroll employment under consensus, confirms the slowdown:
Slow Recovery Continues: Private Employment
ADP and Bloomberg consensus says don’t expect surge, don’t expect decline…