Goldman Sachs prediction for December NFP is -50 thousand, and Deutsche Bank is -75 thousands. The current Bloomberg consensus of +71 thousand (down from +100 thousand on the 6th).
Category Archives: employment
Private Nonfarm Payrolls in December
ADP at -123 thousand vs. expected +88 thousand.
Wisconsin Employment Decline Continues
DWD data indicates nonfarm payroll employment declines in November, as does private nonfarm employment. Government employment also declines, while manufacturing versus accommodation/food services experience diverging fortunes.
Wisconsin Economic Outlook, November 2020
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue has released its Economic Outlook, dated November 22nd. The forecasts incorporate assumptions that include: “November IHS Markit forecast shows a slowing down of the economic recovery in the last quarter of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Several high-frequency indicators point to a further deceleration in October, but the forecast does not include a double dip. ….Wisconsin personal income growth accelerated in 2020 pushed by the federal stimulus funds, but it’s expected to decline 1.9% in 2021, as the fiscal stimulus fades. …The current forecast assumes no further fiscal stimulus and that a vaccine will be available by mid2021.”
Wisconsin Employment Down
From Wisconsin DWD this afternoon:
[T]he data shows that Wisconsin total non-farm jobs decreased by 14,700 and 2,700 private-sector jobs in the month of October.
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate for October was 5.7 percent, up from 5.4 percent in September.
Business Cycle Indicators, November 6
Meanwhile, back in the real economy, the employment decelerates. Here’s the current outlook, using some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Employment in October: Further Deceleration
The employment release confirms a deceleration in employment, presaging deceleration in the other macro indicators. Government employment is down, and not solely because of the winding-down of the decennial Census. Rather, state and local government employment is declining, and is now 6.8% below NBER peak level.
Employment Growth Continues to Decelerate: the ADP Report
ADP reports private nonfarm payroll employment today, +365K, below +650K consensus…:
Labor Force Developments
Nationwide, labor force down 2.7% from February, and down 2.4% from year ago.
Business Cycle Indicators, 16 October
With the release of industrial production figures today, the deceleration in economic activity continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).