April employment figures were released today, showing a marked slowdown in the labor market. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Category Archives: employment
Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment in April
ADP private nonfarm change at 742K below consensus of 800K (Bloomberg).
Wisconsin Employment in February: Trending Sideways
If you’d thought the recovery was in full swing, think again. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment has stabilized at a level down 5.6% relative to NBER peak in 2020M02 (in log terms), vs. 6.4% for the nation overall (according to figures released by DWD today).
Wisconsin Employment Trends with Benchmark Revisions
Wisconsin month on month employment (nonfarm payroll) grows at an annualized 4.8% in January, but remains 5.1% below January 2020 levels. NFP employment levels for December are benchmark-revised up by 51.7 thousand, or about 1.8%. Details from DWD.
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators as of 5 March
The positive surprise in nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment — 379K vs Bloomberg consensus of 182K — was good news. However, it’s important to place this in context. NFP is 9.5 million lower (i.e., 6.2% lower) than the NBER peak in February 2020. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Aggregate Wisconsin Employment Stabilizes, High Contact Services Decline
DWD data released yesterday indicates nonfarm payroll employment broke their two month decline. Private employment rose as well, while manufacturing versus accommodation/food services trend diverged. State and local government employment continued their decline.
Downside Employment Surprise and Business Cycle Indicators as of January 8th
Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down 100 thousand, contra +81 Bloomberg consensus, even worse than GS and DB.
A Darkening Short Term Outlook
Goldman Sachs prediction for December NFP is -50 thousand, and Deutsche Bank is -75 thousands. The current Bloomberg consensus of +71 thousand (down from +100 thousand on the 6th).
Private Nonfarm Payrolls in December
ADP at -123 thousand vs. expected +88 thousand.
Wisconsin Employment Decline Continues
DWD data indicates nonfarm payroll employment declines in November, as does private nonfarm employment. Government employment also declines, while manufacturing versus accommodation/food services experience diverging fortunes.