Based on ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series for October.
Category Archives: employment
McService Job Nation?
Reader Moonmac argues the case that we are in a recession, in a rejoinder my paper “Recession since 2022? A Critique“:
McService Job Nation disagrees even though they’re employed. Gainfully is a different matter.
Employment Overall, and at Smaller Firms
While overall private employment has risen, firms with 1-49 employees have kept employment flat in recent months.
“Fake” Economic Activity
A common refrain I see in some conservative circles is that employment gains or GDP are juiced by “fake” activity, of which government spending is one and health care services are another (health care services are allegedly “fake” by virtue of being mostly government funded – at least that’s the argument I see a lot).
Did Government Employment Account for Most of September’s Employment Gains?
Business Cycle Indicators – with September Employment
The recovery continues, with a recession hard to see (even incorporating the preliminary benchmark revision without caveat). A snapshot of indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
In Real Time, Does a Downturn in Household Survey Employment Better Presage a Recession than One in the Establishment Survey?
Here’s the current situation:
NFP Blowout
Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two months’ data were revised a total of 46K. Here’s a graph of reported September and August release numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported yesterday).
Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data
My guess for private NFP:
State Employment Report for August
Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report).