Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two months’ data were revised a total of 46K. Here’s a graph of reported September and August release numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported yesterday).
Category Archives: employment
Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data
My guess for private NFP:
State Employment Report for August
Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report).
How’s Wisconsin Employment Doing?
July was down, and we won’t have August numbers until September 20th (maybe a day earlier from DWD). Using official nationwide nonfarm payroll employment, Wisconsin employment is growing.
EJ Antoni/Heritage on What Unemployment Rate We Should Be Looking At
EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading:
Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release
Employment growth is slowing. Even taking the preliminary benchmark at face value, we’re not in recession as of mid-August (when the survey is taken).
Employment Slowdown in Context
NFP +142 vs. consensus +166. Employment has almost surely slowed (keeping in mind this is the preliminary release). What does this look like?
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official [updated]
The puzzle remains: despite an under-consensus 99K addition to private ADP-Stanford NFP (far below consensus 144K). ADP cumulative change above CES cumulative change, while preliminary benchmark is below.
EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation: “some suspect government statisticians are committing lies of omission.”
And could it be that Ancient Aliens helped build the Pyramids? Sure!
For Labor Day 2024: Four Graphs from “The State of Working Wisconsin, 2024”
On this blog, I intermittently post on Wisconsin macro aggregates. For micro assessments of Wisconsin’s labor markets and household welfare, I turn to High Road Strategy Center’s reports. From the 2024 report, here are four key graphs.