As assessed probability of Brexit rises, the pound falls.
USD per Pound, last 5 days, as of 4AM London time. Source: Bloomberg.
Pound is down 9.29% against USD since London close (5PM local).
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Yi Zhang, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. This post draws upon this paper.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics’ William Cline has just published estimates of equilibrium exchange rates for May 2016; the USD is 7% overvalued, while the Chinese yuan (CNY) is at its “FEER level”.
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Reuven Glick at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Andrew Rose at the University of California at Berkeley. The views expressed below do not represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This blog is an updated version of FRBSF Economic Letter 2016-09, March 21, 2016.
In my last post, I noted a conference on uncertainty in macroeconomics. Here are two papers of particular interest to me.
That’s the title of the conference being held today and tomorrow at University College London, and cosponsored by School of Slavonic and East European Studies at UCL, the Banque de France, University of Leicester, the Money, Macro and Finance group, and the Centre for Macroeconomics.
That was a title of a conference last summer held by the Swiss National Bank, and noted in this post. Mark A. Wynne and Julieta Yung discuss the conference proceedings.
The 2016Q1 advance release, discussed at length by Jim, provides additional evidence in favor extreme caution in tightening monetary policy — maybe even a reconsideration of the June rate hike that seems, according to conventional wisdom, a done deal.
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
Today I discuss the factors that brought oil prices so far down and more recently back up.
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