Larger and larger gross cross-border holdings lead to bigger swings in the NIIP to GDP ratio.
Category Archives: exchange rates
“(Why) Is The Dollar Still King?”
“The Future of the International Monetary System,” a talk by Mark Sobel, former Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary, Executive Director at the IMF, current US Chair next Tuesday (4/4), at H.F. DeLuca Forum (“Discovery Building”), 330 N. Orchard Street. Co-sponsored by the Center for European Studies and the La Follette School of Public Affairs.
Guest Contribution: “Fifty Years of Floating”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
“Forecasting Summer School: Modeling and Forecasting the International Dimensions”
That’s the title of the 6th annual Forecasting Summer School, June 24-25, at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business, Charlottesville, where I’ll be the instructor. The deadline in March 27.
Financial Market Integration Assessed
In a new paper prepared for the Handbook of Financial Integration, edited by Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Hiro Ito and I examine bond based measures of financial market integration (so, no quantity stock/flow measures, nor banking integration).
Guest Contribution: “Boosting carry with equilibrium exchange rate estimates”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Michal Rubaszek (SGH Warsaw School of Economics), Joscha Beckmann (FernUniversität Hagen and Kiel Institute for the World Economy) Michele Ca’ Zorzi (ECB), and Marek Kwas (SGH Warsaw School of Economics). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions they are affiliated with.
“Do foreign yield curves predict US recessions and GDP growth?”
Our short answer: yes.
Guest Contribution: “The Strong Dollar, Global Inflation, and Global Recession”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Messages from the Labor Market Release
The recession is (probably) not here yet (nor was it likely here earlier this year), employment likely continued to grow, and real wages are on average higher than they were before the pandemic. First, key business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC continue uptrend in October, with exception of the civilian employment series based on the household series.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed’s swap lines: Narrow circle, broad effect?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California).